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Stomil Olsztyn vs Lechia T. Mazowiecki — III Liga - Group 1 2020

Stomil Olsztyn
Stomil Olsztyn
FT
3 – 4
HT: 1 – 1
Lechia T. Mazowiecki
Lechia T. Mazowiecki
3/1/2025III Liga - Group 1III Liga - Group 1 · Group 1 - 19Stadion OSiR

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Stomil Olsztyn37%
×Draw23%
Lechia T. Mazowiecki41%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Stomil Olsztyn
1.66
Lechia T. Mazowiecki
1.75

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 17 home / 102 away

creates per match

Stomil Olsztyn
1.41
Lechia T. Mazowiecki
1.63

allows per match

Stomil Olsztyn
1.88
Lechia T. Mazowiecki
1.91

finishing

Stomil Olsztyn+0.00on par
Lechia T. Mazowiecki+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Over
  • Over66
  • Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

67%Yes
  • Yes67
  • No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Stomil Olsztyn ↓

Lechia T. Mazowiecki →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–16%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–28%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
66%34%3.5
44%56%4.5
25%75%

Double chance

Stomil Olsztyn or draw
59%
Stomil Olsztyn or Lechia T. Mazowiecki
77%
Draw or Lechia T. Mazowiecki
63%

Winning margin

Stomil Olsztyn wins by 2+
18%
Lechia T. Mazowiecki wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

Stomil Olsztyn 1+ goals
81%
Stomil Olsztyn 2+ goals
49%
Stomil Olsztyn 3+ goals
23%
Lechia T. Mazowiecki 1+ goals
83%
Lechia T. Mazowiecki 2+ goals
52%
Lechia T. Mazowiecki 3+ goals
25%

Draw no bet

Stomil Olsztyn (draw refunded)
48%
Lechia T. Mazowiecki (draw refunded)
52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
57%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Stomil Olsztyn at home — creates 1.41, concedes 1.88 · 17 matches

Lechia T. Mazowiecki away — creates 1.63, concedes 1.91 · 102 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Stomil Olsztyn attack 1.41 + Lechia T. Mazowiecki defence 1.91 → ÷2 → 1.66

Lechia T. Mazowiecki attack 1.63 + Stomil Olsztyn defence 1.88 → ÷2 → 1.75

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Stomil Olsztyn scores more
37%
level
23%
Lechia T. Mazowiecki scores more
41%

Lechia T. Mazowiecki at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Lechia T. Mazowiecki will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

III Liga - Group 1: Stomil Olsztyn 3–4 Lechia T. Mazowiecki

Lechia T. Mazowiecki beat Stomil Olsztyn 4-3 in III Liga - Group 1 on March 1, 2025.

The match was played at Stadion OSiR in Olsztyn.