Stomil Olsztyn 0–1 Korona Kielce: Result & Stats

Stomil Olsztyn

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Korona Kielce

J. Łukowski 45' (pen)

8/18/2021

I Liga · Round 4Stadion OSiR

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Stomil Olsztyn36%

×Draw28%

Korona Kielce36%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Stomil OlsztynExpected goals in this matchKorona Kielce

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.17

Stomil Olsztyn

1.17

Korona Kielce

1.17

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 68 home / 34 away

1.04

creates per match

1.03

1.31

allows per match

1.29

creates per match

Stomil Olsztyn

1.04

Korona Kielce

1.03

allows per match

Stomil Olsztyn

1.31

Korona Kielce

1.29

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Stomil Olsztyn+0.00on par

Korona Kielce+0.00on par

Total goals

Under59
Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Stomil Olsztyn ↓

Korona Kielce →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–111%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

68%32%2.5

41%59%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Stomil Olsztyn or draw

64%

Stomil Olsztyn or Korona Kielce

72%

Draw or Korona Kielce

64%

Winning margin

Stomil Olsztyn wins by 2+

15%

Korona Kielce wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Stomil Olsztyn 1+ goals

69%

Stomil Olsztyn 2+ goals

33%

Stomil Olsztyn 3+ goals

11%

Korona Kielce 1+ goals

69%

Korona Kielce 2+ goals

33%

Korona Kielce 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Stomil Olsztyn (draw refunded)

50%

Korona Kielce (draw refunded)

50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Stomil Olsztyn at home — creates 1.04, concedes 1.31 · 68 matches

Korona Kielce away — creates 1.03, concedes 1.29 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Stomil Olsztyn attack 1.04 + Korona Kielce defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.17

Korona Kielce attack 1.03 + Stomil Olsztyn defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

Stomil Olsztyn scores more

36%

level

28%

Korona Kielce scores more

36%

Stomil Olsztyn at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Stomil Olsztyn will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

6'

F. Oliveira

45'

J. ŁukowskiPenalty

46'

L. Sierpina

46'

S. Lewicki← M. Fundambu

62'

R. Remisz

65'

J. Podgórski← M. Lewandowski

68'

B. Galach← B. Czajka

78'

M. Spychała← K. Żwir

78'

M. Zebić← Z. Petrović

83'

P. Zych← Ł. Moneta

83'

J. Mysiorski← P. Mikita

Stomil

Korona

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

Manager: A. Stawski

46'▲S. Lewicki←▼M. Fundambu

68'▲B. Galach←▼B. Czajka

78'▲M. Spychała←▼K. Żwir

83'▲P. Zych←▼Ł. Moneta

83'▲J. Mysiorski←▼P. Mikita

Stomil Olsztyn substitutes

LewickiGalachSpychałaZychMysiorski

Manager: D. Nowak

65'▲J. Podgórski←▼M. Lewandowski

78'▲M. Zebić←▼Z. Petrović

Korona Kielce substitutes

PodgórskiZebić

I Liga: Stomil Olsztyn 0–1 Korona Kielce

Korona Kielce beat Stomil Olsztyn 1-0 in I Liga on August 18, 2021.

Goals: J. Łukowski (45' pen).

The match was played at Stadion OSiR in Olsztyn.

Stomil Olsztyn vs Korona Kielce — I Liga 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

I Liga: Stomil Olsztyn 0–1 Korona Kielce