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Stomil Olsztyn vs Bytovia Bytów — I Liga 2018

Stomil Olsztyn
Stomil Olsztyn
FT
3 – 2
HT: 3 – 0
Bytovia Bytów
Bytovia Bytów
11/17/2018I LigaI Liga · Round 19Stadion OSiR (Olsztyn)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Stomil Olsztyn38%
×Draw25%
Bytovia Bytów37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Stomil Olsztyn
1.40
Bytovia Bytów
1.39

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 68 home / 17 away

creates per match

Stomil Olsztyn
1.04
Bytovia Bytów
1.47

allows per match

Stomil Olsztyn
1.31
Bytovia Bytów
1.76

finishing

Stomil Olsztyn+0.00on par
Bytovia Bytów+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Stomil Olsztyn ↓

Bytovia Bytów →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–19%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Stomil Olsztyn or draw
63%
Stomil Olsztyn or Bytovia Bytów
75%
Draw or Bytovia Bytów
62%

Winning margin

Stomil Olsztyn wins by 2+
17%
Bytovia Bytów wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Stomil Olsztyn 1+ goals
75%
Stomil Olsztyn 2+ goals
41%
Stomil Olsztyn 3+ goals
17%
Bytovia Bytów 1+ goals
75%
Bytovia Bytów 2+ goals
40%
Bytovia Bytów 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Stomil Olsztyn (draw refunded)
50%
Bytovia Bytów (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Stomil Olsztyn at home — creates 1.04, concedes 1.31 · 68 matches

Bytovia Bytów away — creates 1.47, concedes 1.76 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Stomil Olsztyn attack 1.04 + Bytovia Bytów defence 1.76 → ÷2 → 1.40

Bytovia Bytów attack 1.47 + Stomil Olsztyn defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.39

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Stomil Olsztyn scores more
38%
level
25%
Bytovia Bytów scores more
37%

Stomil Olsztyn at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Stomil Olsztyn will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

I Liga: Stomil Olsztyn 3–2 Bytovia Bytów

Stomil Olsztyn beat Bytovia Bytów 3-2 in I Liga on November 17, 2018.

The match was played at Stadion OSiR (Olsztyn).