Stolem Gniewino 0–0 Flota Świnoujście

Stolem Gniewino

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Flota Świnoujście

8/11/2023

III Liga - Group 2 · Group 2 - 2Stadion GOTiS

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 49+ matches

Stolem Gniewino35%

×Draw25%

Flota Świnoujście40%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Stolem GniewinoExpected goals in this matchFlota Świnoujście

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.38

1.48

Stolem Gniewino

1.38

Flota Świnoujście

1.48

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 49 home / 68 away

1.20

creates per match

1.38

1.59

allows per match

1.56

creates per match

Stolem Gniewino

1.20

Flota Świnoujście

1.38

allows per match

Stolem Gniewino

1.59

Flota Świnoujście

1.56

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Stolem Gniewino+0.00on par

Flota Świnoujście+0.00on par

Total goals

Over54
Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Stolem Gniewino ↓

Flota Świnoujście →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–18%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–29%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

54%46%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Stolem Gniewino or draw

60%

Stolem Gniewino or Flota Świnoujście

75%

Draw or Flota Świnoujście

65%

Winning margin

Stolem Gniewino wins by 2+

16%

Flota Świnoujście wins by 2+

19%

Team goals

Stolem Gniewino 1+ goals

75%

Stolem Gniewino 2+ goals

40%

Stolem Gniewino 3+ goals

16%

Flota Świnoujście 1+ goals

77%

Flota Świnoujście 2+ goals

43%

Flota Świnoujście 3+ goals

19%

Draw no bet

Stolem Gniewino (draw refunded)

47%

Flota Świnoujście (draw refunded)

53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

46%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Stolem Gniewino at home — creates 1.20, concedes 1.59 · 49 matches

Flota Świnoujście away — creates 1.38, concedes 1.56 · 68 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Stolem Gniewino attack 1.20 + Flota Świnoujście defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.38

Flota Świnoujście attack 1.38 + Stolem Gniewino defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.48

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Stolem Gniewino scores more

35%

level

25%

Flota Świnoujście scores more

40%

Flota Świnoujście at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Flota Świnoujście will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff