Stokkseyri 0–11 Hvíti riddarinn: Result & Stats

Stokkseyri

0 – 11

HT: 0 – 5

Hvíti riddarinn

4/10/2022

Cup · 1st RoundJÁVERK-völlurinn

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Stokkseyri9%

×Draw10%

Hvíti riddarinn82%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

StokkseyriExpected goals in this matchHvíti riddarinn

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.77

5.02

Stokkseyri

1.77

Hvíti riddarinn

5.02

Hvíti riddarinn creates 184% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 7 away

1.25

creates per match

3.29

6.75

allows per match

2.29

creates per match

Stokkseyri

1.25

Hvíti riddarinn

3.29

allows per match

Stokkseyri

6.75

Hvíti riddarinn

2.29

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Stokkseyri+0.00on par

Hvíti riddarinn+0.00on par

Total goals

Over95
Under5

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes82
No18

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Stokkseyri ↓

Hvíti riddarinn →

0–00%

0–11%

0–22%

0–33%

0–44%

1–00%

1–11%

1–23%

1–36%

1–47%

2–00%

2–11%

2–23%

2–35%

2–46%

3–00%

3–11%

3–22%

3–33%

3–44%

4–00%

4–10%

4–21%

4–31%

4–42%

Most likely 1–4 (7%) · grid covers 56% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

100%0%1.5

99%1%2.5

95%5%3.5

88%12%4.5

75%25%

Double chance

Stokkseyri or draw

18%

Stokkseyri or Hvíti riddarinn

90%

Draw or Hvíti riddarinn

91%

Winning margin

Stokkseyri wins by 2+

Hvíti riddarinn wins by 2+

67%

Team goals

Stokkseyri 1+ goals

83%

Stokkseyri 2+ goals

53%

Stokkseyri 3+ goals

26%

Hvíti riddarinn 1+ goals

99%

Hvíti riddarinn 2+ goals

95%

Hvíti riddarinn 3+ goals

84%

Draw no bet

Stokkseyri (draw refunded)

10%

Hvíti riddarinn (draw refunded)

90%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

81%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Stokkseyri at home — creates 1.25, concedes 6.75 · 4 matches

Hvíti riddarinn away — creates 3.29, concedes 2.29 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Stokkseyri attack 1.25 + Hvíti riddarinn defence 2.29 → ÷2 → 1.77

Hvíti riddarinn attack 3.29 + Stokkseyri defence 6.75 → ÷2 → 5.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 82%?"

Stokkseyri scores more

level

10%

Hvíti riddarinn scores more

82%

Hvíti riddarinn at 82% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 82% does not mean "Hvíti riddarinn will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff