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Stokkseyri vs Haukar — Cup 2019

Stokkseyri
Stokkseyri
FT
0 – 7
Haukar
Haukar
5/2/2021CupCup · 2nd RoundJÁVERK-völlurinn

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Stokkseyri6%
×Draw8%
Haukar86%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Stokkseyri
1.33
Haukar
4.67

Haukar creates 251% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 12 away

creates per match

Stokkseyri
1.25
Haukar
2.58

allows per match

Stokkseyri
6.75
Haukar
1.42

finishing

Stokkseyri+0.00on par
Haukar+0.00on par

Total goals

92%Over
  • Over92
  • Under8

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

73%Yes
  • Yes73
  • No27

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Stokkseyri ↓

Haukar →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–00%
0–11%
0–23%
0–35%
0–46%
1
1–00%
1–12%
1–24%
1–37%
1–48%
2
2–00%
2–11%
2–23%
2–35%
2–45%
3
3–00%
3–11%
3–21%
3–32%
3–42%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–4 (8%) · grid covers 61% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
100%0%1.5
98%2%2.5
92%8%3.5
81%19%4.5
65%35%

Double chance

Stokkseyri or draw
14%
Stokkseyri or Haukar
92%
Draw or Haukar
94%

Winning margin

Stokkseyri wins by 2+
2%
Haukar wins by 2+
72%

Team goals

Stokkseyri 1+ goals
74%
Stokkseyri 2+ goals
38%
Stokkseyri 3+ goals
15%
Haukar 1+ goals
99%
Haukar 2+ goals
93%
Haukar 3+ goals
81%

Draw no bet

Stokkseyri (draw refunded)
7%
Haukar (draw refunded)
93%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
71%
Both score & under 3
2%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Stokkseyri at home — creates 1.25, concedes 6.75 · 4 matches

Haukar away — creates 2.58, concedes 1.42 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Stokkseyri attack 1.25 + Haukar defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.33

Haukar attack 2.58 + Stokkseyri defence 6.75 → ÷2 → 4.67

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 86%?"

Stokkseyri scores more
6%
level
8%
Haukar scores more
86%

Haukar at 86% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 86% does not mean "Haukar will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Cup: Stokkseyri 0–7 Haukar

Haukar beat Stokkseyri 7-0 in Cup on May 2, 2021.

The match was played at JÁVERK-völlurinn in Selfoss, Árborg.