Stoke City W 7–0 Sutton Coldfield Town W

Stoke City W

7 – 0

HT: 4 – 0

Sutton Coldfield Town W

10/26/2025

FA Women's Cup · 1st Round

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Stoke City W71%

×Draw14%

Sutton Coldfield Town W16%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Stoke City WExpected goals in this matchSutton Coldfield Town W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

3.79

1.83

Stoke City W

3.79

Sutton Coldfield Town W

1.83

Stoke City W creates 107% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 6 away

4.25

creates per match

2.67

1.00

allows per match

3.33

creates per match

Stoke City W

4.25

Sutton Coldfield Town W

2.67

allows per match

Stoke City W

1.00

Sutton Coldfield Town W

3.33

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Stoke City W+0.00on par

Sutton Coldfield Town W+0.00on par

Total goals

Over91
Under9

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes82
No18

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Stoke City W ↓

Sutton Coldfield Town W →

0–00%

0–11%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1–02%

1–13%

1–23%

1–32%

1–41%

2–03%

2–15%

2–25%

2–33%

2–41%

3–04%

3–17%

3–26%

3–34%

3–42%

4–03%

4–16%

4–26%

4–34%

4–42%

Most likely 3–1 (7%) · grid covers 71% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

100%0%1.5

97%3%2.5

91%9%3.5

79%21%4.5

63%37%

Double chance

Stoke City W or draw

84%

Stoke City W or Sutton Coldfield Town W

86%

Draw or Sutton Coldfield Town W

29%

Winning margin

Stoke City W wins by 2+

53%

Sutton Coldfield Town W wins by 2+

Team goals

Stoke City W 1+ goals

98%

Stoke City W 2+ goals

88%

Stoke City W 3+ goals

70%

Sutton Coldfield Town W 1+ goals

84%

Sutton Coldfield Town W 2+ goals

54%

Sutton Coldfield Town W 3+ goals

28%

Draw no bet

Stoke City W (draw refunded)

82%

Sutton Coldfield Town W (draw refunded)

18%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

79%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Stoke City W at home — creates 4.25, concedes 1.00 · 8 matches

Sutton Coldfield Town W away — creates 2.67, concedes 3.33 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Stoke City W attack 4.25 + Sutton Coldfield Town W defence 3.33 → ÷2 → 3.79

Sutton Coldfield Town W attack 2.67 + Stoke City W defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 71%?"

Stoke City W scores more

71%

level

14%

Sutton Coldfield Town W scores more

16%

Stoke City W at 71% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 71% does not mean "Stoke City W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff