Stoke City W 0–0 Huddersfield Town W

Stoke City W

AET

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Huddersfield Town W

12/8/2019

FA Women's Cup · 2nd RoundNorton Cricket Club & Miners Welfare Institute

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Stoke City W76%

×Draw13%

Huddersfield Town W11%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Stoke City WExpected goals in this matchHuddersfield Town W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

3.31

1.25

Stoke City W

3.31

Huddersfield Town W

1.25

Stoke City W creates 165% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 8 away

4.25

creates per match

1.50

1.00

allows per match

2.38

creates per match

Stoke City W

4.25

Huddersfield Town W

1.50

allows per match

Stoke City W

1.00

Huddersfield Town W

2.38

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Stoke City W+0.00on par

Huddersfield Town W+0.00on par

Total goals

Over82
Under18

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes69
No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Stoke City W ↓

Huddersfield Town W →

0–01%

0–11%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1–04%

1–15%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2–06%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3–07%

3–18%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4–06%

4–17%

4–24%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 80% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

94%6%2.5

82%18%3.5

65%35%4.5

45%55%

Double chance

Stoke City W or draw

89%

Stoke City W or Huddersfield Town W

87%

Draw or Huddersfield Town W

24%

Winning margin

Stoke City W wins by 2+

57%

Huddersfield Town W wins by 2+

Team goals

Stoke City W 1+ goals

96%

Stoke City W 2+ goals

83%

Stoke City W 3+ goals

62%

Huddersfield Town W 1+ goals

71%

Huddersfield Town W 2+ goals

36%

Huddersfield Town W 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Stoke City W (draw refunded)

87%

Huddersfield Town W (draw refunded)

13%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

64%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Stoke City W at home — creates 4.25, concedes 1.00 · 8 matches

Huddersfield Town W away — creates 1.50, concedes 2.38 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Stoke City W attack 4.25 + Huddersfield Town W defence 2.38 → ÷2 → 3.31

Huddersfield Town W attack 1.50 + Stoke City W defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 76%?"

Stoke City W scores more

76%

level

13%

Huddersfield Town W scores more

11%

Stoke City W at 76% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 76% does not mean "Stoke City W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff