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Stoke City vs Wrexham — Championship 2018

Stoke City
Stoke City
Preview
15:00
Wrexham
Wrexham
12/26/2026ChampionshipChampionship · Round 23Bet365 Stadium
45%
Stoke City
model favours
45%27%28%

Stoke City sit 17, Wrexham 7 in the table

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
56%
under 2.5 goals
49%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 18+ matches

Stoke City45%
×Draw27%
Wrexham28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Stoke City
1.40
Wrexham
1.04

Stoke City creates 35% more chances

Season form · 58 home / 18 away

creates per match

Stoke City
1.18
Wrexham
0.86

allows per match

Stoke City
1.23
Wrexham
1.62

finishing

Stoke City+0.13scores more
Wrexham+0.36scores more

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Stoke City ↓

Wrexham →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Stoke City or draw
72%
Stoke City or Wrexham
73%
Draw or Wrexham
55%

Winning margin

Stoke City wins by 2+
22%
Wrexham wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Stoke City 1+ goals
75%
Stoke City 2+ goals
41%
Stoke City 3+ goals
17%
Wrexham 1+ goals
65%
Wrexham 2+ goals
28%
Wrexham 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Stoke City (draw refunded)
62%
Wrexham (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Stoke City at home — creates 1.18, concedes 1.23 · 58 matches

Wrexham away — creates 0.86, concedes 1.62 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Stoke City attack 1.18 + Wrexham defence 1.62 → ÷2 → 1.40

Wrexham attack 0.86 + Stoke City defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Stoke City scores more
45%
level
27%
Wrexham scores more
28%

Stoke City at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Stoke City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Wrexham outscore their xG (1.6 vs 1.2 expected)

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Style Matchup

Similar styles
Stoke City
Balanced
Wrexham
Balanced
50%Possession48%
75%Pass accuracy77%
11.4Shots11.3
1.12xGBiggest gap1.21
Pass acc.ShotsxGBox shareShot acc.Defense
Stoke CityWrexham

Head-to-head

3 previous meetings

2
Stoke City
0
Draws
1
Wrexham
Avg goals: 2.3BTTS: 33%
0–21–03–1

Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.

Form
City
WDLLL
Wrexham
WDDLW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Stoke City face Wrexham (Championship)

Championship returns with Stoke City hosting Wrexham. Match starts December 26, 2026. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Stoke City host Wrexham at Bet365 Stadium.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.