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Stoke City vs Wigan — Championship 2018

Stoke City
Stoke City
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Wigan
Wigan
W. Keane 54'
4/18/2023ChampionshipChampionship · Round 43bet365 Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 63+ matches

Stoke City46%
×Draw27%
Wigan27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Stoke City
1.43
Wigan
1.03

Stoke City creates 39% more chances

Season form · 175 home / 63 away

creates per match

Stoke City
1.30
Wigan
0.97

allows per match

Stoke City
1.09
Wigan
1.56

finishing

Stoke City+0.00on par
Wigan+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Stoke City ↓

Wigan →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
45%55%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Stoke City or draw
73%
Stoke City or Wigan
73%
Draw or Wigan
54%

Winning margin

Stoke City wins by 2+
22%
Wigan wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Stoke City 1+ goals
76%
Stoke City 2+ goals
42%
Stoke City 3+ goals
17%
Wigan 1+ goals
64%
Wigan 2+ goals
28%
Wigan 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Stoke City (draw refunded)
63%
Wigan (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Stoke City at home — creates 1.30, concedes 1.09 · 175 matches

Wigan away — creates 0.97, concedes 1.56 · 63 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Stoke City attack 1.30 + Wigan defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.43

Wigan attack 0.97 + Stoke City defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.03

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Stoke City scores more
46%
level
27%
Wigan scores more
27%

Stoke City at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Stoke City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

32
C. TaylorStoke CityStoke City · D
7.3

Match Events

27'
Jordan Thompson
32'
Max Power
32'
T. Campbell← J. Brown
54'
W. Keane↳ M. Power
62'
K. Hoever← B. Celina
68'
Ryan Nyambe
70'
W. Smallbone← L. Baker
78'
T. Naylor← W. Keane
81'
A. Fletcher← J. Magennis
90+3'
Nick Powell

Possession

64%Stoke

Shots

9Stoke

Pass accuracy

54%Stoke

Statistics

StokeWigan
Overview
64%Possession36%
9Total Shots7
7Corners4
17Fouls13
Shots
9Total Shots7
3On Target2
6Off Target4
0Blocked1
4Inside Box4
5Outside Box3
Passing
64%Possession36%
531Total Passes303
433Accurate Passes212
82%Pass Accuracy70%
Goalkeeping
0Saves3
Discipline
17Fouls13
2Yellow Cards2
0Offsides2

Championship: Stoke City 0–1 Wigan

Wigan beat Stoke City 1-0 in Championship on April 18, 2023.

Goals: W. Keane (54').

Stoke City controlled possession (64%) and registered 9 shots to 7.

The match was played at bet365 Stadium in Stoke-on-Trent, Staffordshire.