Stoke City 0–3 West Ham: Result & Stats

Stoke City

FT

0 – 3

HT: 0 – 1

West Ham

D. Sakho 86'

M. Arnautović 75'

M. Noble 19' (pen)

12/16/2017

Premier League · Round 18bet365 Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 72+ matches

Stoke City42%

×Draw26%

West Ham33%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Stoke CityExpected goals in this matchWest Ham

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.46

1.26

Stoke City

1.46

West Ham

1.26

Stoke City creates 16% more chances

Season form · 72 home / 198 away

1.31

creates per match

1.21

1.31

allows per match

1.60

creates per match

Stoke City

1.31

West Ham

1.21

allows per match

Stoke City

1.31

West Ham

1.60

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Stoke City+0.00on par

West Ham+0.00on par

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Stoke City ↓

West Ham →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

51%49%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Stoke City or draw

67%

Stoke City or West Ham

74%

Draw or West Ham

58%

Winning margin

Stoke City wins by 2+

20%

West Ham wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Stoke City 1+ goals

77%

Stoke City 2+ goals

43%

Stoke City 3+ goals

18%

West Ham 1+ goals

72%

West Ham 2+ goals

36%

West Ham 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Stoke City (draw refunded)

56%

West Ham (draw refunded)

44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Stoke City at home — creates 1.31, concedes 1.31 · 72 matches

West Ham away — creates 1.21, concedes 1.60 · 198 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Stoke City attack 1.31 + West Ham defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.46

West Ham attack 1.21 + Stoke City defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.26

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Stoke City scores more

42%

level

26%

West Ham scores more

33%

Stoke City at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Stoke City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10

M. Lanzini

West Ham · F

9.4

Match Events

19'

M. NoblePenalty

24'

Kevin Wimmer

35'

D. Rice← M. Noble

50'

Ryan Shawcross

60'

Arthur Masuaku

62'

S. Berahino← M. Diouf

62'

C. Adam← D. Fletcher

63'

J. Tymon← E. Pieters

68'

D. Sakho← M. Antonio

75'

M. Arnautović↳ M. Lanzini

79'

Javier Hernández← M. Arnautović

86'

D. Sakho↳ M. Lanzini

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

StokeWest

Overview

54%Possession46%

17Total Shots14

7Corners9

12Fouls13

Shots

17Total Shots14

0On Target7

8Off Target6

9Blocked1

8Inside Box11

9Outside Box3

Passing

54%Possession46%

432Total Passes372

333Accurate Passes295

77%Pass Accuracy79%

Goalkeeping

4Saves0

Discipline

12Fouls13

2Yellow Cards1

0Offsides1