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Stoke City vs West Brom — Championship 2025

Stoke City
Stoke City
Preview
15:00
West Brom
West Brom
12/12/2026ChampionshipChampionship · Round 21Bet365 Stadium
Big match
38%
Stoke City
model favours
38%27%35%

West Brom score first in only 27% of matches

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
54%
under 2.5 goals
51%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 9+ matches

Stoke City38%
×Draw27%
West Brom35%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Stoke City
1.30
West Brom
1.22

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 9 home / 24 away

creates per match

Stoke City
1.46
West Brom
1.20

allows per match

Stoke City
1.24
West Brom
1.15

finishing

Stoke City+0.76scores more
West Brom-0.32scores less

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Stoke City ↓

West Brom →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
46%54%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Stoke City or draw
65%
Stoke City or West Brom
73%
Draw or West Brom
62%

Winning margin

Stoke City wins by 2+
17%
West Brom wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Stoke City 1+ goals
73%
Stoke City 2+ goals
37%
Stoke City 3+ goals
14%
West Brom 1+ goals
70%
West Brom 2+ goals
34%
West Brom 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Stoke City (draw refunded)
53%
West Brom (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Stoke City at home — creates 1.46, concedes 1.24 · 9 matches

West Brom away — creates 1.20, concedes 1.15 · 24 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Stoke City attack 1.46 + West Brom defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.30

West Brom attack 1.20 + Stoke City defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.22

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Stoke City scores more
38%
level
27%
West Brom scores more
35%

Stoke City at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Stoke City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Style Matchup

Contrasting styles
Stoke City
Balanced
West Brom
Defensively solid
52%Possession52%
77%Pass accuracy81%
10.9ShotsBiggest gap12.9
1.14xG1.27
Pass acc.ShotsxGBox shareShot acc.Defense
Stoke CityWest Brom

Head-to-head

9 previous meetings

2
Stoke City
3
Draws
4
West Brom
Avg goals: 1.8BTTS: 44%
0–00–13–11–10–1

Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.

Form
City
LLLLL
Brom
WLDWW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Stoke City face West Brom (Championship)

Championship returns with Stoke City hosting West Brom. Match starts December 12, 2026. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Stoke City host West Brom at Bet365 Stadium.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.