Stoke City 3–1 West Brom: Result & Stats

Stoke City

FT

3 – 1

HT: 2 – 0

West Brom

12/23/2017

Premier League · Round 19bet365 Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 72+ matches

Stoke City45%

×Draw27%

West Brom29%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Stoke CityExpected goals in this matchWest Brom

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.41

1.07

Stoke City

1.41

West Brom

1.07

Stoke City creates 32% more chances

Season form · 72 home / 94 away

1.31

creates per match

0.84

1.31

allows per match

1.51

creates per match

Stoke City

1.31

West Brom

0.84

allows per match

Stoke City

1.31

West Brom

1.51

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Stoke City+0.00on par

West Brom+0.00on par

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Stoke City ↓

West Brom →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

45%55%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Stoke City or draw

71%

Stoke City or West Brom

73%

Draw or West Brom

55%

Winning margin

Stoke City wins by 2+

21%

West Brom wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Stoke City 1+ goals

76%

Stoke City 2+ goals

41%

Stoke City 3+ goals

17%

West Brom 1+ goals

66%

West Brom 2+ goals

29%

West Brom 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Stoke City (draw refunded)

61%

West Brom (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Stoke City at home — creates 1.31, concedes 1.31 · 72 matches

West Brom away — creates 0.84, concedes 1.51 · 94 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Stoke City attack 1.31 + West Brom defence 1.51 → ÷2 → 1.41

West Brom attack 0.84 + Stoke City defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Stoke City scores more

45%

level

27%

West Brom scores more

29%

Stoke City at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Stoke City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff