Stoke City 2–1 Sunderland: Result & Stats

Stoke City

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Sunderland

10/21/2023

Championship · Round 12bet365 Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 11+ matches

Stoke City40%

×Draw28%

Sunderland32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Stoke CityExpected goals in this matchSunderland

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.25

1.07

Stoke City

1.25

Sunderland

1.07

Stoke City creates 17% more chances

Season form · 28 home / 11 away

1.30

creates per match

0.99

1.15

allows per match

1.19

creates per match

Stoke City

1.30

Sunderland

0.99

allows per match

Stoke City

1.15

Sunderland

1.19

+0.16scores more than expected

finishing

+0.10scores more than expected

finishing

Stoke City+0.16scores more

Sunderland+0.10scores more

Total goals

Under59
Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Stoke City ↓

Sunderland →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–111%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–18%

2–24%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

67%33%2.5

41%59%3.5

20%80%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Stoke City or draw

68%

Stoke City or Sunderland

72%

Draw or Sunderland

60%

Winning margin

Stoke City wins by 2+

18%

Sunderland wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Stoke City 1+ goals

71%

Stoke City 2+ goals

36%

Stoke City 3+ goals

13%

Sunderland 1+ goals

66%

Sunderland 2+ goals

29%

Sunderland 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Stoke City (draw refunded)

56%

Sunderland (draw refunded)

44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Stoke City at home — creates 1.30, concedes 1.15 · 28 matches

Sunderland away — creates 0.99, concedes 1.19 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Stoke City attack 1.30 + Sunderland defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.25

Sunderland attack 0.99 + Stoke City defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Stoke City scores more

40%

level

28%

Sunderland scores more

32%

Stoke City at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Stoke City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff