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Stoke City vs Sunderland — Premier League 2026

Stoke City
Stoke City
FT
2 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Sunderland
Sunderland
J. Allen 45+1', 8'
10/15/2016Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 8bet365 Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 59+ matches

Stoke City43%
×Draw26%
Sunderland30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Stoke City
1.41
Sunderland
1.13

Stoke City creates 25% more chances

Season form · 66 home / 59 away

creates per match

Stoke City
1.33
Sunderland
0.92

allows per match

Stoke City
1.33
Sunderland
1.49

finishing

Stoke City+0.00on par
Sunderland+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Stoke City ↓

Sunderland →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Stoke City or draw
70%
Stoke City or Sunderland
74%
Draw or Sunderland
57%

Winning margin

Stoke City wins by 2+
21%
Sunderland wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Stoke City 1+ goals
76%
Stoke City 2+ goals
41%
Stoke City 3+ goals
17%
Sunderland 1+ goals
68%
Sunderland 2+ goals
31%
Sunderland 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Stoke City (draw refunded)
59%
Sunderland (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Stoke City at home — creates 1.33, concedes 1.33 · 66 matches

Sunderland away — creates 0.92, concedes 1.49 · 59 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Stoke City attack 1.33 + Sunderland defence 1.49 → ÷2 → 1.41

Sunderland attack 0.92 + Stoke City defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Stoke City scores more
43%
level
26%
Sunderland scores more
30%

Stoke City at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Stoke City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

4
J. AllenStoke CityStoke City · M
8.4

Match Events

8'
J. Allen↳ M. Arnautović
40'
B. Jones← P. van Aanholt
45+1'
J. Allen
55'
Marko Arnautović
55'
S. Pienaar← P. McNair
65'
C. Adam← P. Bardsley
75'
Muniesa← J. Allen
76'
J. Walters← W. Bony
81'
V. Anichebe← J. Rodwell
90'
Billy Jones

Possession

57%Stoke

Shots

17Stoke

Pass accuracy

52%Stoke

Statistics

StokeSunderland
Overview
57%Possession43%
17Total Shots11
6Corners4
10Fouls13
Shots
17Total Shots11
6On Target1
4Off Target4
7Blocked6
9Inside Box5
8Outside Box6
Passing
57%Possession43%
478Total Passes357
393Accurate Passes266
82%Pass Accuracy75%
Goalkeeping
1Saves4
Discipline
10Fouls13
1Yellow Cards1
2Offsides2

Premier League: Stoke City 2–0 Sunderland

Stoke City beat Sunderland 2-0 in Premier League on October 15, 2016.

Goals: J. Allen (8', 45+1').

Stoke City controlled possession (57%) and registered 17 shots to 11.

The match was played at bet365 Stadium in Stoke.