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Stoke City vs Sunderland — Premier League 2026

Stoke City
Stoke City
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Sunderland
Sunderland
M. Arnautović 50'
J. Defoe 90+4' (pen)
4/30/2016Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 36bet365 Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 59+ matches

Stoke City43%
×Draw26%
Sunderland30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Stoke City
1.41
Sunderland
1.13

Stoke City creates 25% more chances

Season form · 66 home / 59 away

creates per match

Stoke City
1.33
Sunderland
0.92

allows per match

Stoke City
1.33
Sunderland
1.49

finishing

Stoke City+0.00on par
Sunderland+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Stoke City ↓

Sunderland →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Stoke City or draw
70%
Stoke City or Sunderland
74%
Draw or Sunderland
57%

Winning margin

Stoke City wins by 2+
21%
Sunderland wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Stoke City 1+ goals
76%
Stoke City 2+ goals
41%
Stoke City 3+ goals
17%
Sunderland 1+ goals
68%
Sunderland 2+ goals
31%
Sunderland 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Stoke City (draw refunded)
59%
Sunderland (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Stoke City at home — creates 1.33, concedes 1.33 · 66 matches

Sunderland away — creates 0.92, concedes 1.49 · 59 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Stoke City attack 1.33 + Sunderland defence 1.49 → ÷2 → 1.41

Sunderland attack 0.92 + Stoke City defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Stoke City scores more
43%
level
26%
Sunderland scores more
30%

Stoke City at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Stoke City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10
M. ArnautovićStoke CityStoke City · M
8.0

Match Events

50'
M. Arnautović↳ P. Crouch
56'
J. Walters← M. Arnautović
59'
D. N'Doye← F. Borini
60'
D. Watmore← W. Khazri
74'
Charlie Adam
77'
S. Larsson← J. Kirchhoff
78'
M. Diouf← X. Shaqiri
79'
Dame N'Doye
82'
Giannelli Imbula
86'
Muniesa← C. Adam
90'
Sebastian Larsson
90+4'
J. DefoePenalty

Possession

53%Stoke

Shots

11Stoke

Pass accuracy

53%Stoke

Statistics

StokeSunderland
Overview
53%Possession47%
11Total Shots14
2Corners8
0Fouls0
Shots
11Total Shots14
3On Target5
6Off Target5
2Blocked4
6Inside Box8
5Outside Box6
Passing
53%Possession47%
369Total Passes306
264Accurate Passes195
72%Pass Accuracy64%
Goalkeeping
4Saves2
Discipline
0Fouls0
2Yellow Cards2
1Offsides1

Premier League: Stoke City 1–1 Sunderland

Stoke City and Sunderland drew 1-1 in Premier League on April 30, 2016.

Goals: M. Arnautović (50'), J. Defoe (90+4' pen).

Stoke City controlled possession (53%) and registered 11 shots to 14.

The match was played at bet365 Stadium in Stoke.