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Stoke City vs Southampton — Championship 2018

Stoke City
Stoke City
Preview
19:45
Southampton
Southampton
3/3/2027ChampionshipChampionship · Round 35Bet365 Stadium
Big match
40%
Southampton
model favours
34%26%40%

Southampton score first in only 12% of matches

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
51%
under 2.5 goals
54%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 44+ matches

Stoke City34%
×Draw26%
Southampton40%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Stoke City
1.25
Southampton
1.39

Southampton creates 11% more chances

Season form · 58 home / 44 away

creates per match

Stoke City
1.18
Southampton
1.54

allows per match

Stoke City
1.23
Southampton
1.33

finishing

Stoke City+0.13scores more
Southampton+0.05on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Stoke City ↓

Southampton →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–110%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Stoke City or draw
60%
Stoke City or Southampton
74%
Draw or Southampton
66%

Winning margin

Stoke City wins by 2+
14%
Southampton wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Stoke City 1+ goals
71%
Stoke City 2+ goals
36%
Stoke City 3+ goals
13%
Southampton 1+ goals
75%
Southampton 2+ goals
40%
Southampton 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Stoke City (draw refunded)
46%
Southampton (draw refunded)
54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Stoke City at home — creates 1.18, concedes 1.23 · 58 matches

Southampton away — creates 1.54, concedes 1.33 · 44 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Stoke City attack 1.18 + Southampton defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.25

Southampton attack 1.54 + Stoke City defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.39

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Stoke City scores more
34%
level
26%
Southampton scores more
40%

Southampton at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Southampton will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Southampton have scored in 13 games running
  • 82% of Southampton’s matches go over 2.5 goals
  • Both teams score in 88% of Southampton’s matches
  • Stoke City sit 17, Southampton 4 in the table

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Style Matchup

Contrasting styles
Stoke City
Balanced
Southampton
Possession-dominant
50%Possession60%
75%Pass accuracy86%
11.4Shots14.4
1.12xGBiggest gap1.66
Pass acc.ShotsxGBox shareShot acc.Defense
Stoke CitySouthampton

Head-to-head

10 previous meetings

5
Stoke City
2
Draws
3
Southampton
Avg goals: 1.7BTTS: 40%
0–22–11–00–10–0

Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.

Form
City
WDLLL
Southampton
WDDW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Stoke City vs Southampton — Match Preview

Stoke City face Southampton on March 3, 2027 in this Championship fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Stoke City host Southampton at Bet365 Stadium.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.