Stoke City 0–1 Southampton: Result & Stats

Stoke City

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Southampton

S. Armstrong 41'

10/3/2023

Championship · Round 10bet365 Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 44+ matches

Stoke City34%

×Draw26%

Southampton40%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Stoke CityExpected goals in this matchSouthampton

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.25

1.39

Stoke City

1.25

Southampton

1.39

Southampton creates 11% more chances

Season form · 60 home / 44 away

1.18

creates per match

1.54

1.23

allows per match

1.33

creates per match

Stoke City

1.18

Southampton

1.54

allows per match

Stoke City

1.23

Southampton

1.33

+0.12scores more than expected

finishing

+0.05on par

finishing

Stoke City+0.12scores more

Southampton+0.05on par

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Stoke City ↓

Southampton →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–110%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–29%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Stoke City or draw

60%

Stoke City or Southampton

74%

Draw or Southampton

66%

Winning margin

Stoke City wins by 2+

14%

Southampton wins by 2+

19%

Team goals

Stoke City 1+ goals

71%

Stoke City 2+ goals

36%

Stoke City 3+ goals

13%

Southampton 1+ goals

75%

Southampton 2+ goals

40%

Southampton 3+ goals

16%

Draw no bet

Stoke City (draw refunded)

46%

Southampton (draw refunded)

54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Stoke City at home — creates 1.18, concedes 1.23 · 60 matches

Southampton away — creates 1.54, concedes 1.33 · 44 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Stoke City attack 1.18 + Southampton defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.25

Southampton attack 1.54 + Stoke City defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.39

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Stoke City scores more

34%

level

26%

Southampton scores more

40%

Southampton at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Southampton will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

31

G. Bazunu

Southampton · G

7.9

Match Events

41'

S. Armstrong

44'

Ki-Jana Hoever

45'

Ben Pearson

59'

J. Thompson← B. Wilmot

70'

W. Burger← J. Laurent

70'

Bae Jun-Ho← S. Hakšabanović

72'

S. Mara← C. Alcaraz

72'

R. Fraser← K. Sulemana

74'

Wesley← K. Hoever

81'

J. Aribo← A. Armstrong

81'

S. Charles← S. Armstrong

86'

Daniel Johnson

86'

Flynn Downes

87'

Mehdi Léris

90+3'

M. Holgate← W. Smallbone

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

StokeSouthampton

Overview

43%Possession57%

15Total Shots9

0.66Expected Goals (xG)0.92

8Corners6

17Fouls2

Shots

15Total Shots9

2On Target4

6Off Target3

7Blocked2

6Inside Box6

9Outside Box3

Passing

43%Possession57%

374Total Passes534

273Accurate Passes455

73%Pass Accuracy85%

Goalkeeping

3Saves3

Discipline

17Fouls2

4Yellow Cards1

1Offsides1