Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Stoke City vs Sligo Rovers — Friendlies Clubs 2026

Stoke City
Stoke City
CANC
16:00
Sligo Rovers
Sligo Rovers
1/20/2023Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 3Poolfoot Farm

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Stoke City24%
×Draw27%
Sligo Rovers49%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Stoke City
0.92
Sligo Rovers
1.42

Sligo Rovers creates 54% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 3 away

creates per match

Stoke City
0.83
Sligo Rovers
2.00

allows per match

Stoke City
0.83
Sligo Rovers
1.00

finishing

Stoke City+0.00on par
Sligo Rovers+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Stoke City ↓

Sligo Rovers →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–114%
0–210%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–09%
1–113%
1–29%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–16%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
41%59%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Stoke City or draw
51%
Stoke City or Sligo Rovers
73%
Draw or Sligo Rovers
76%

Winning margin

Stoke City wins by 2+
8%
Sligo Rovers wins by 2+
24%

Team goals

Stoke City 1+ goals
60%
Stoke City 2+ goals
23%
Stoke City 3+ goals
7%
Sligo Rovers 1+ goals
76%
Sligo Rovers 2+ goals
41%
Sligo Rovers 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Stoke City (draw refunded)
33%
Sligo Rovers (draw refunded)
67%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Stoke City at home — creates 0.83, concedes 0.83 · 6 matches

Sligo Rovers away — creates 2.00, concedes 1.00 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Stoke City attack 0.83 + Sligo Rovers defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.92

Sligo Rovers attack 2.00 + Stoke City defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 1.42

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Stoke City scores more
24%
level
27%
Sligo Rovers scores more
49%

Sligo Rovers at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Sligo Rovers will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Stoke City host Sligo Rovers

January 20, 2023: Stoke City take on Sligo Rovers in Friendlies Clubs. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Stoke City host Sligo Rovers at Poolfoot Farm.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.