Stoke City 3–0 Luton: Result & Stats | Championship

Stoke City

FT

3 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Luton

S. Fletcher 78'

N. Powell 63', 20'

2/20/2021

Championship · Round 31bet365 Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 21+ matches

Stoke City45%

×Draw27%

Luton28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Stoke CityExpected goals in this matchLuton

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.38

1.03

Stoke City

1.38

Luton

1.03

Stoke City creates 34% more chances

Season form · 55 home / 21 away

1.17

creates per match

0.85

1.22

allows per match

1.59

creates per match

Stoke City

1.17

Luton

0.85

allows per match

Stoke City

1.22

Luton

1.59

+0.18scores more than expected

finishing

-0.04on par

finishing

Stoke City+0.18scores more

Luton-0.04on par

Total goals

Under57
Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Stoke City ↓

Luton →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

43%57%3.5

22%78%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Stoke City or draw

72%

Stoke City or Luton

73%

Draw or Luton

55%

Winning margin

Stoke City wins by 2+

21%

Luton wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Stoke City 1+ goals

75%

Stoke City 2+ goals

40%

Stoke City 3+ goals

16%

Luton 1+ goals

64%

Luton 2+ goals

28%

Luton 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Stoke City (draw refunded)

62%

Luton (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Stoke City at home — creates 1.17, concedes 1.22 · 55 matches

Luton away — creates 0.85, concedes 1.59 · 21 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Stoke City attack 1.17 + Luton defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.38

Luton attack 0.85 + Stoke City defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.03

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Stoke City scores more

45%

level

27%

Luton scores more

28%

Stoke City at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Stoke City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

25

N. Powell

Stoke City · M

8.9

Match Events

8'

Jacob Brown

20'

N. Powell↳ S. Fletcher

31'

James Collins

47'

Glen Rea

63'

N. Powell↳ J. Allen

64'

M. Obi← N. Powell

64'

S. Clucas← J. Thompson

67'

J. Morrell← J. Bree

67'

R. Tunnicliffe← P. Ruddock

74'

J. Clarke← J. Brown

74'

J. McClean← J. Tymon

78'

S. Fletcher↳ S. Clucas

81'

S. Vokes← S. Fletcher

83'

E. Adebayo← J. Collins

83'

G. Moncur← H. Cornick

83'

D. Hylton← M. Cranie

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

StokeLuton

Overview

46%Possession54%

18Total Shots8

8Corners2

13Fouls11

Shots

18Total Shots8

8On Target1

6Off Target5

4Blocked2

13Inside Box3

5Outside Box5

Passing

46%Possession54%

383Total Passes458

259Accurate Passes319

68%Pass Accuracy70%

Goalkeeping

1Saves5

Discipline

13Fouls11

1Yellow Cards2

1Offsides2

Championship: Stoke City 3–0 Luton

Stoke City beat Luton 3-0 in Championship on February 20, 2021.

Goals: N. Powell (20', 63'), S. Fletcher (78').

Luton controlled possession (54%) and registered 8 shots to 18.

The match was played at bet365 Stadium in Stoke-on-Trent, Staffordshire.

Stoke City vs Luton — Championship 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Championship: Stoke City 3–0 Luton