Luton 1–0 Stoke City: Result & Stats | Championship

Luton

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Stoke City

P. Mpanzu 6'

2/4/2023

Championship · Round 30Kenilworth Road

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 21+ matches

Luton50%

×Draw26%

Stoke City24%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

LutonExpected goals in this matchStoke City

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.53

0.97

Luton

1.53

Stoke City

0.97

Luton creates 58% more chances

Season form · 21 home / 47 away

1.39

creates per match

1.00

0.93

allows per match

1.67

creates per match

Luton

1.39

Stoke City

1.00

allows per match

Luton

0.93

Stoke City

1.67

-0.29scores less than expected

finishing

-0.28scores less than expected

finishing

Luton-0.29scores less

Stoke City-0.28scores less

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Luton ↓

Stoke City →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–18%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–19%

2–25%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

46%54%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Luton or draw

76%

Luton or Stoke City

74%

Draw or Stoke City

50%

Winning margin

Luton wins by 2+

26%

Stoke City wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Luton 1+ goals

78%

Luton 2+ goals

45%

Luton 3+ goals

20%

Stoke City 1+ goals

62%

Stoke City 2+ goals

25%

Stoke City 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Luton (draw refunded)

68%

Stoke City (draw refunded)

32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Luton at home — creates 1.39, concedes 0.93 · 21 matches

Stoke City away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.67 · 47 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Luton attack 1.39 + Stoke City defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.53

Stoke City attack 1.00 + Luton defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 0.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Luton scores more

50%

level

26%

Stoke City scores more

24%

Luton at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Luton will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

17

P. Mpanzu

Luton · M

7.6

Match Events

6'

P. Mpanzu↳ E. Adebayo

38'

Josh Tymon

43'

Cody Drameh

45+2'

K. Hoever← J. Tymon

61'

F. Onyedinma← C. Drameh

62'

M. Nakamba← A. Campbell

70'

C. Woodrow← C. Morris

70'

W. Smallbone← L. Baker

70'

T. Campbell← D. Gayle

82'

J. Thompson← B. Celina

90+2'

Cauley Woodrow

90+4'

Will Smallbone

90+4'

Jordan Thompson

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

LutonStoke

Overview

47%Possession53%

11Total Shots7

7Corners5

11Fouls7

Shots

11Total Shots7

4On Target1

4Off Target3

3Blocked3

6Inside Box3

5Outside Box4

Passing

47%Possession53%

332Total Passes398

228Accurate Passes267

69%Pass Accuracy67%

Goalkeeping

1Saves3

Discipline

11Fouls7

2Yellow Cards3

6Offsides1