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Stoke City vs Leicester — Premier League 2026

Stoke City
Stoke City
FT
2 – 2
HT: 2 – 0
Leicester
Leicester
J. Allen 45+3'
Bojan 39' (pen)
D. Amartey 88'
L. Ulloa 74'
12/17/2016Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 17bet365 Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 66+ matches

Stoke City40%
×Draw25%
Leicester35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Stoke City
1.50
Leicester
1.38

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 66 home / 156 away

creates per match

Stoke City
1.33
Leicester
1.43

allows per match

Stoke City
1.33
Leicester
1.67

finishing

Stoke City+0.00on par
Leicester+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Stoke City ↓

Leicester →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Stoke City or draw
65%
Stoke City or Leicester
75%
Draw or Leicester
60%

Winning margin

Stoke City wins by 2+
19%
Leicester wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Stoke City 1+ goals
78%
Stoke City 2+ goals
44%
Stoke City 3+ goals
19%
Leicester 1+ goals
75%
Leicester 2+ goals
40%
Leicester 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Stoke City (draw refunded)
54%
Leicester (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Stoke City at home — creates 1.33, concedes 1.33 · 66 matches

Leicester away — creates 1.43, concedes 1.67 · 156 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Stoke City attack 1.33 + Leicester defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.50

Leicester attack 1.43 + Stoke City defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.38

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Stoke City scores more
40%
level
25%
Leicester scores more
35%

Stoke City at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Stoke City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

6
G. WhelanStoke CityStoke City · M
7.6

Match Events

28'
Jamie Vardy
38'
Danny Simpson
39'
BojanPenalty
43'
Andy King
43'
Islam Slimani
45'
Marc Albrighton
45'
Christian Fuchs
45+3'
J. Allen
48'
Glen Johnson
48'
Robert Huth
67'
Erik Pieters
72'
D. Gray← M. Albrighton
72'
L. Ulloa← I. Slimani
74'
L. Ulloa↳ D. Gray
80'
A. Musa← R. Mahrez
83'
C. Adam← Bojan
88'
D. Amartey↳ C. Fuchs
90+2'
Ramadan Sobhi← G. Whelan

Possession

64%Stoke

Shots

16Stoke

Pass accuracy

54%Stoke

Statistics

StokeLeicester
Overview
64%Possession36%
16Total Shots14
9Corners9
9Fouls12
Shots
16Total Shots14
7On Target8
4Off Target3
5Blocked3
7Inside Box9
9Outside Box5
Passing
64%Possession36%
573Total Passes311
490Accurate Passes227
86%Pass Accuracy73%
Goalkeeping
6Saves5
Discipline
9Fouls12
2Yellow Cards6
0Red Cards1
3Offsides0

Match Recap: Stoke City vs Leicester

Stoke City and Leicester drew 2-2 in Premier League on December 17, 2016.

Goals: Bojan (39' pen), J. Allen (45+3'), L. Ulloa (74'), D. Amartey (88').

Stoke City controlled possession (64%) and registered 16 shots to 14.

The match was played at bet365 Stadium in Stoke.