Stoke City 3–0 Huddersfield: Result & Stats

Stoke City

FT

3 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Huddersfield

L. Baker 90+4' (pen)

J. Brown 73'

P. Jagielka 13'

2/15/2023

Championship · Round 32bet365 Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 10+ matches

Stoke City41%

×Draw27%

Huddersfield32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Stoke CityExpected goals in this matchHuddersfield

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.33

1.16

Stoke City

1.33

Huddersfield

1.16

Stoke City creates 15% more chances

Season form · 54 home / 10 away

1.17

creates per match

1.08

1.23

allows per match

1.49

creates per match

Stoke City

1.17

Huddersfield

1.08

allows per match

Stoke City

1.23

Huddersfield

1.49

+0.18scores more than expected

finishing

+0.12scores more than expected

finishing

Stoke City+0.18scores more

Huddersfield+0.12scores more

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Stoke City ↓

Huddersfield →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–110%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

45%55%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Stoke City or draw

68%

Stoke City or Huddersfield

73%

Draw or Huddersfield

59%

Winning margin

Stoke City wins by 2+

19%

Huddersfield wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Stoke City 1+ goals

74%

Stoke City 2+ goals

38%

Stoke City 3+ goals

15%

Huddersfield 1+ goals

69%

Huddersfield 2+ goals

32%

Huddersfield 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Stoke City (draw refunded)

56%

Huddersfield (draw refunded)

44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Stoke City at home — creates 1.17, concedes 1.23 · 54 matches

Huddersfield away — creates 1.08, concedes 1.49 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Stoke City attack 1.17 + Huddersfield defence 1.49 → ÷2 → 1.33

Huddersfield attack 1.08 + Stoke City defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Stoke City scores more

41%

level

27%

Huddersfield scores more

32%

Stoke City at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Stoke City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

9

J. Brown

Stoke City · M

8.0

Match Events

13'

P. Jagielka↳ W. Smallbone

17'

Matthew Pearson

30'

M. Lowton← M. Pearson

42'

45+1'

47'

51'

55'

64'

64'

68'

68'

73'

75'

J. Thompson← B. Pearson

82'

A. Tuanzebe← P. Jagielka

82'

L. Baker← W. Smallbone

83'

E. Tezgel← D. Gayle

90+1'

Lewis Baker

90+4'

L. BakerPenalty

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

StokeHuddersfield

Overview

56%Possession44%

16Total Shots3

12Corners3

15Fouls13

Shots

16Total Shots3

6On Target1

7Off Target2

3Blocked0

14Inside Box2

2Outside Box1

Passing

56%Possession44%

384Total Passes307

283Accurate Passes211

74%Pass Accuracy69%

Goalkeeping

1Saves3

Discipline

15Fouls13

2Yellow Cards5

0Red Cards1

1Offsides1

Match Recap: Stoke City vs Huddersfield

Stoke City beat Huddersfield 3-0 in Championship on February 15, 2023.

Goals: P. Jagielka (13'), J. Brown (73'), L. Baker (90+4' pen).

Stoke City controlled possession (56%) and registered 16 shots to 3.

The match was played at bet365 Stadium in Stoke-on-Trent, Staffordshire.

Stoke City vs Huddersfield — Championship 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Match Recap: Stoke City vs Huddersfield