Stoke City 2–0 Huddersfield: Result & Stats

Stoke City

FT

2 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Huddersfield

M. Diouf 69'

J. Allen 53'

1/20/2018

Premier League · Round 24bet365 Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 36+ matches

Stoke City53%

×Draw25%

Huddersfield22%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Stoke CityExpected goals in this matchHuddersfield

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.64

0.96

Stoke City

1.64

Huddersfield

0.96

Stoke City creates 71% more chances

Season form · 66 home / 36 away

1.33

creates per match

0.58

1.33

allows per match

1.94

creates per match

Stoke City

1.33

Huddersfield

0.58

allows per match

Stoke City

1.33

Huddersfield

1.94

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Stoke City+0.00on par

Huddersfield+0.00on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Stoke City ↓

Huddersfield →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–17%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Stoke City or draw

78%

Stoke City or Huddersfield

75%

Draw or Huddersfield

47%

Winning margin

Stoke City wins by 2+

29%

Huddersfield wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Stoke City 1+ goals

81%

Stoke City 2+ goals

49%

Stoke City 3+ goals

23%

Huddersfield 1+ goals

62%

Huddersfield 2+ goals

25%

Huddersfield 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Stoke City (draw refunded)

71%

Huddersfield (draw refunded)

29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Stoke City at home — creates 1.33, concedes 1.33 · 66 matches

Huddersfield away — creates 0.58, concedes 1.94 · 36 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Stoke City attack 1.33 + Huddersfield defence 1.94 → ÷2 → 1.64

Huddersfield attack 0.58 + Stoke City defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 0.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Stoke City scores more

53%

level

25%

Huddersfield scores more

22%

Stoke City at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Stoke City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

4

J. Allen

Stoke City · M

7.8

Match Events

34'

Jonathan Hogg

53'

J. Allen↳ E. Choupo-Moting

56'

C. Quaner← T. Ince

60'

A. Sabiri← A. Pritchard

69'

71'

72'

77'

79'

90+4'

Ramadan Sobhi← E. Choupo-Moting

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

StokeHuddersfield

Overview

48%Possession52%

11Total Shots6

3Corners2

18Fouls13

Shots

11Total Shots6

6On Target3

4Off Target3

1Blocked0

10Inside Box3

1Outside Box3

Passing

48%Possession52%

330Total Passes353

199Accurate Passes194

60%Pass Accuracy55%

Goalkeeping

3Saves4

Discipline

18Fouls13

1Yellow Cards1

10Offsides0