Stoke City 2–0 Fulham: Result & Stats

Stoke City

FT

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Fulham

L. Gregory 80' (pen)

T. Campbell 16'

10/19/2019

Championship · Round 12bet365 Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 46+ matches

Stoke City32%

×Draw27%

Fulham41%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Stoke CityExpected goals in this matchFulham

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.13

1.31

Stoke City

1.13

Fulham

1.31

Fulham creates 16% more chances

Season form · 175 home / 46 away

1.30

creates per match

1.54

1.09

allows per match

0.96

creates per match

Stoke City

1.30

Fulham

1.54

allows per match

Stoke City

1.09

Fulham

0.96

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Stoke City+0.00on par

Fulham+0.00on par

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Stoke City ↓

Fulham →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–111%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–17%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Stoke City or draw

59%

Stoke City or Fulham

73%

Draw or Fulham

68%

Winning margin

Stoke City wins by 2+

13%

Fulham wins by 2+

18%

Team goals

Stoke City 1+ goals

68%

Stoke City 2+ goals

31%

Stoke City 3+ goals

11%

Fulham 1+ goals

73%

Fulham 2+ goals

38%

Fulham 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Stoke City (draw refunded)

44%

Fulham (draw refunded)

56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Stoke City at home — creates 1.30, concedes 1.09 · 175 matches

Fulham away — creates 1.54, concedes 0.96 · 46 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Stoke City attack 1.30 + Fulham defence 0.96 → ÷2 → 1.13

Fulham attack 1.54 + Stoke City defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Stoke City scores more

32%

level

27%

Fulham scores more

41%

Fulham at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Fulham will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

19

L. Gregory

Stoke City · F

8.4

Match Events

16'

T. Campbell↳ L. Gregory

26'

63'

64'

65'

76'

S. Hogan← T. Campbell

79'

Marcus Bettinelli

80'

L. GregoryPenalty

83'

N. Kebano← A. Knockaert

90'

L. Lindsay← S. Clucas

90+3'

S. Vokes← L. Gregory

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

StokeFulham

Overview

22%Possession78%

9Total Shots10

4Corners6

15Fouls12

Shots

9Total Shots10

5On Target4

1Off Target2

3Blocked4

8Inside Box5

1Outside Box5

Passing

22%Possession78%

190Total Passes678

132Accurate Passes613

69%Pass Accuracy90%

Goalkeeping

4Saves3

Discipline

15Fouls12

2Yellow Cards2

3Offsides0