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Stoke City vs Everton — Friendlies Clubs 2026

Stoke City
Stoke City
Preview
18:45
Everton
Everton
7/28/2026Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies
39%
Everton
model favours
34%27%39%

Everton have won 3 of the last 4 meetings

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
55%
under 2.5 goals
50%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Stoke City34%
×Draw27%
Everton39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Stoke City
1.17
Everton
1.29

Everton creates 10% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 4 away

creates per match

Stoke City
0.83
Everton
1.75

allows per match

Stoke City
0.83
Everton
1.50

finishing

Stoke City+0.00on par
Everton+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Stoke City ↓

Everton →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–111%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
45%55%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Stoke City or draw
61%
Stoke City or Everton
73%
Draw or Everton
66%

Winning margin

Stoke City wins by 2+
14%
Everton wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Stoke City 1+ goals
69%
Stoke City 2+ goals
33%
Stoke City 3+ goals
11%
Everton 1+ goals
72%
Everton 2+ goals
37%
Everton 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Stoke City (draw refunded)
46%
Everton (draw refunded)
54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Stoke City at home — creates 0.83, concedes 0.83 · 6 matches

Everton away — creates 1.75, concedes 1.50 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Stoke City attack 0.83 + Everton defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.17

Everton attack 1.75 + Stoke City defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Stoke City scores more
34%
level
27%
Everton scores more
39%

Everton at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Everton will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • 33% of Everton’s goals come after the 75th minute

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
City
WDLLL
Everton
WLLDD

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Stoke City face Everton (Friendlies Clubs)

Friendlies Clubs returns with Stoke City hosting Everton. Match starts July 28, 2026. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.