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Stoke City vs Everton — Premier League 2026

Stoke City
Stoke City
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Everton
Everton
P. Crouch 7'
R. Shawcross 39' (OG)
2/1/2017Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 23bet365 Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 66+ matches

Stoke City42%
×Draw26%
Everton32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Stoke City
1.43
Everton
1.20

Stoke City creates 19% more chances

Season form · 66 home / 178 away

creates per match

Stoke City
1.33
Everton
1.06

allows per match

Stoke City
1.33
Everton
1.53

finishing

Stoke City+0.00on par
Everton+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Stoke City ↓

Everton →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Stoke City or draw
68%
Stoke City or Everton
74%
Draw or Everton
58%

Winning margin

Stoke City wins by 2+
20%
Everton wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Stoke City 1+ goals
76%
Stoke City 2+ goals
42%
Stoke City 3+ goals
17%
Everton 1+ goals
70%
Everton 2+ goals
34%
Everton 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Stoke City (draw refunded)
57%
Everton (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Stoke City at home — creates 1.33, concedes 1.33 · 66 matches

Everton away — creates 1.06, concedes 1.53 · 178 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Stoke City attack 1.33 + Everton defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.43

Everton attack 1.06 + Stoke City defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.20

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Stoke City scores more
42%
level
26%
Everton scores more
32%

Stoke City at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Stoke City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

16
C. AdamStoke CityStoke City · M
8.2

Match Events

7'
P. Crouch↳ M. Arnautović
39'
R. ShawcrossOwn goal
46'
J. McCarthy← M. Holgate
67'
S. Berahino← J. Allen
69'
A. Lookman← K. Mirallas
81'
Phil Bardsley
89'
J. Ngoy← M. Arnautović

Possession

47%Stoke

Shots

14Stoke

Pass accuracy

50%Stoke

Statistics

StokeEverton
Overview
47%Possession53%
14Total Shots15
5Corners5
21Fouls12
Shots
14Total Shots15
7On Target5
5Off Target7
2Blocked3
9Inside Box9
5Outside Box7
Passing
47%Possession53%
422Total Passes485
329Accurate Passes383
78%Pass Accuracy79%
Goalkeeping
5Saves5
Discipline
21Fouls12
1Yellow Cards0
1Offsides3

Premier League: Stoke City 1–1 Everton

Stoke City and Everton drew 1-1 in Premier League on February 1, 2017.

Goals: P. Crouch (7'), R. Shawcross (39' o.g.).

Everton controlled possession (53%) and registered 15 shots to 14.

The match was played at bet365 Stadium in Stoke.