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Stoke City vs Coventry — Championship 2018

Stoke City
Stoke City
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Coventry
Coventry
G. Hamer 65'
J. Allen 51'
10/22/2022ChampionshipChampionship · Round 17bet365 Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 55+ matches

Stoke City34%
×Draw27%
Coventry40%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Stoke City
1.20
Coventry
1.33

Coventry creates 11% more chances

Season form · 55 home / 57 away

creates per match

Stoke City
1.17
Coventry
1.45

allows per match

Stoke City
1.22
Coventry
1.23

finishing

Stoke City+0.18scores more
Coventry+0.09on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Stoke City ↓

Coventry →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–111%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
46%54%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Stoke City or draw
60%
Stoke City or Coventry
73%
Draw or Coventry
66%

Winning margin

Stoke City wins by 2+
14%
Coventry wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Stoke City 1+ goals
70%
Stoke City 2+ goals
34%
Stoke City 3+ goals
12%
Coventry 1+ goals
74%
Coventry 2+ goals
38%
Coventry 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Stoke City (draw refunded)
46%
Coventry (draw refunded)
54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Stoke City at home — creates 1.17, concedes 1.22 · 55 matches

Coventry away — creates 1.45, concedes 1.23 · 57 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Stoke City attack 1.17 + Coventry defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.20

Coventry attack 1.45 + Stoke City defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Stoke City scores more
34%
level
27%
Coventry scores more
40%

Coventry at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Coventry will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

38
G. HamerCoventryCoventry · M
8.2

Match Events

46'
H. Clarke← D. Sterling
51'
J. Allen↳ G. Hamer
56'
Kasey Palmer
57'
J. Brown← T. Campbell
58'
N. Powell← D. Gayle
65'
G. Hamer↳ K. Palmer
66'
M. Waghorn← K. Palmer
73'
L. Delap← W. Smallbone
77'
C. O'Hare← G. Hamer
90+3'
Josh Laurent
90'
T. Kane← F. Dabo

Possession

65%Stoke

Shots

11Stoke

Pass accuracy

58%Stoke

Statistics

StokeCoventry
Overview
65%Possession35%
11Total Shots8
9Corners2
8Fouls15
Shots
11Total Shots8
2On Target3
7Off Target3
2Blocked2
6Inside Box7
5Outside Box1
Passing
65%Possession35%
531Total Passes289
422Accurate Passes167
79%Pass Accuracy58%
Goalkeeping
1Saves2
Discipline
8Fouls15
1Yellow Cards1
2Offsides0

Championship: Stoke City 0–2 Coventry

Coventry beat Stoke City 2-0 in Championship on October 22, 2022.

Goals: J. Allen (51'), G. Hamer (65').

Stoke City controlled possession (65%) and registered 11 shots to 8.

The match was played at bet365 Stadium in Stoke-on-Trent, Staffordshire.