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Coventry vs Stoke City — Championship 2018

Coventry
Coventry
FT
3 – 2
HT: 2 – 0
Stoke City
Stoke City
3/8/2025ChampionshipChampionship · Round 36The Coventry Building Society Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 14+ matches

Coventry49%
×Draw25%
Stoke City26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Coventry
1.62
Stoke City
1.10

Coventry creates 47% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 25 away

creates per match

Coventry
1.76
Stoke City
1.02

allows per match

Coventry
1.18
Stoke City
1.48

finishing

Coventry+0.31scores more
Stoke City-0.38scores less

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Coventry ↓

Stoke City →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–17%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Coventry or draw
74%
Coventry or Stoke City
75%
Draw or Stoke City
51%

Winning margin

Coventry wins by 2+
26%
Stoke City wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Coventry 1+ goals
80%
Coventry 2+ goals
48%
Coventry 3+ goals
22%
Stoke City 1+ goals
67%
Stoke City 2+ goals
30%
Stoke City 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Coventry (draw refunded)
66%
Stoke City (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Coventry at home — creates 1.76, concedes 1.18 · 14 matches

Stoke City away — creates 1.02, concedes 1.48 · 25 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Coventry attack 1.76 + Stoke City defence 1.48 → ÷2 → 1.62

Stoke City attack 1.02 + Coventry defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Coventry scores more
49%
level
25%
Stoke City scores more
26%

Coventry at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Coventry will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Championship: Coventry 3–2 Stoke City

Coventry beat Stoke City 3-2 in Championship on March 8, 2025.

The match was played at The Coventry Building Society Arena in Coventry, West Midlands.