Stoke City 1–1 Coventry: Result & Stats

Stoke City

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Coventry

S. Clucas 43'

V. Gyökeres 14'

5/7/2022

Championship · Round 46bet365 Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 55+ matches

Stoke City34%

×Draw27%

Coventry40%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Stoke CityExpected goals in this matchCoventry

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.20

1.33

Stoke City

1.20

Coventry

1.33

Coventry creates 11% more chances

Season form · 55 home / 57 away

1.17

creates per match

1.45

1.22

allows per match

1.23

creates per match

Stoke City

1.17

Coventry

1.45

allows per match

Stoke City

1.22

Coventry

1.23

+0.18scores more than expected

finishing

+0.09on par

finishing

Stoke City+0.18scores more

Coventry+0.09on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Stoke City ↓

Coventry →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–111%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

46%54%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Stoke City or draw

60%

Stoke City or Coventry

73%

Draw or Coventry

66%

Winning margin

Stoke City wins by 2+

14%

Coventry wins by 2+

18%

Team goals

Stoke City 1+ goals

70%

Stoke City 2+ goals

34%

Stoke City 3+ goals

12%

Coventry 1+ goals

74%

Coventry 2+ goals

38%

Coventry 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Stoke City (draw refunded)

46%

Coventry (draw refunded)

54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Stoke City at home — creates 1.17, concedes 1.22 · 55 matches

Coventry away — creates 1.45, concedes 1.23 · 57 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Stoke City attack 1.17 + Coventry defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.20

Coventry attack 1.45 + Stoke City defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Stoke City scores more

34%

level

27%

Coventry scores more

40%

Coventry at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Coventry will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

8

J. Allen

Coventry · M

7.7

Match Events

14'

V. Gyökeres↳ J. Allen

35'

T. Kane← J. Eccles

43'

S. Clucas↳ J. Tymon

62'

Jamie Allen

68'

D. Wright-Phillips← S. Clucas

69'

J. Jones← J. Shipley

70'

J. Chester← T. Harwood-Bellis

76'

M. Godden← C. OHare

83'

R. Sawyers← N. Powell

89'

Dominic Hyam

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

StokeCoventry

Overview

44%Possession56%

9Total Shots18

4Corners7

9Fouls11

Shots

9Total Shots18

2On Target5

2Off Target5

5Blocked8

6Inside Box12

3Outside Box6

Passing

44%Possession56%

380Total Passes485

288Accurate Passes387

76%Pass Accuracy80%

Goalkeeping

3Saves1

Discipline

9Fouls11

0Yellow Cards2

1Offsides3