Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Stoke City vs Chelsea — Premier League 2026

Stoke City
Stoke City
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Chelsea
Chelsea
J. Walters 38' (pen)
G. Cahill 87'
Willian 13'
3/18/2017Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 29bet365 Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 72+ matches

Stoke City34%
×Draw26%
Chelsea41%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Stoke City
1.29
Chelsea
1.45

Chelsea creates 12% more chances

Season form · 72 home / 201 away

creates per match

Stoke City
1.31
Chelsea
1.59

allows per match

Stoke City
1.31
Chelsea
1.26

finishing

Stoke City+0.00on par
Chelsea+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Stoke City ↓

Chelsea →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–19%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Stoke City or draw
59%
Stoke City or Chelsea
74%
Draw or Chelsea
66%

Winning margin

Stoke City wins by 2+
15%
Chelsea wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

Stoke City 1+ goals
72%
Stoke City 2+ goals
37%
Stoke City 3+ goals
14%
Chelsea 1+ goals
77%
Chelsea 2+ goals
42%
Chelsea 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Stoke City (draw refunded)
45%
Chelsea (draw refunded)
55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Stoke City at home — creates 1.31, concedes 1.31 · 72 matches

Chelsea away — creates 1.59, concedes 1.26 · 201 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Stoke City attack 1.31 + Chelsea defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.29

Chelsea attack 1.59 + Stoke City defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.45

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Stoke City scores more
34%
level
26%
Chelsea scores more
41%

Chelsea at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Chelsea will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

7
N. KantéChelseaChelsea · M
8.1

Match Events

13'
Willian
15'
Joe Allen
17'
Diego Costa
38'
J. WaltersPenalty
40'
Phil Bardsley
61'
M. Diouf← S. Berahino
65'
Bruno Martins Indi
65'
Erik Pieters
70'
Fàbregas← V. Moses
82'
R. Loftus-Cheek← N. Matić
87'
G. Cahill
88'
K. Zouma← Willian
90'
Phil Bardsley
90'
Geoff Cameron
90'
Phil Bardsley
90'
Cesc Fàbregas
90+2'
P. Crouch← Ramadan Sobhi

Possession

36%Stoke

Shots

5Stoke

Pass accuracy

44%Stoke

Statistics

StokeChelsea
Overview
36%Possession64%
5Total Shots20
5Corners11
16Fouls11
Shots
5Total Shots20
1On Target7
2Off Target5
2Blocked8
5Inside Box13
0Outside Box7
Passing
36%Possession64%
290Total Passes522
194Accurate Passes439
67%Pass Accuracy84%
Goalkeeping
5Saves0
Discipline
16Fouls11
6Yellow Cards2
1Red Cards0
3Offsides2

Premier League: Stoke City 1–2 Chelsea

Chelsea beat Stoke City 2-1 in Premier League on March 18, 2017.

Goals: Willian (13'), J. Walters (38' pen), G. Cahill (87').

Chelsea controlled possession (64%) and registered 20 shots to 5.

The match was played at bet365 Stadium in Stoke.