Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Stoke City vs Charlton — Championship 2018

Stoke City
Stoke City
Preview
11:30
Charlton
Charlton
9/5/2026ChampionshipChampionship · Round 5Bet365 Stadium
44%
Stoke City
model favours
44%27%29%

Charlton have scored in 9 games running

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
56%
under 2.5 goals
49%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 21+ matches

Stoke City44%
×Draw27%
Charlton29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Stoke City
1.36
Charlton
1.06

Stoke City creates 28% more chances

Season form · 58 home / 21 away

creates per match

Stoke City
1.18
Charlton
0.89

allows per match

Stoke City
1.23
Charlton
1.55

finishing

Stoke City+0.13scores more
Charlton-0.03on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Stoke City ↓

Charlton →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
22%78%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Stoke City or draw
71%
Stoke City or Charlton
73%
Draw or Charlton
56%

Winning margin

Stoke City wins by 2+
20%
Charlton wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Stoke City 1+ goals
74%
Stoke City 2+ goals
39%
Stoke City 3+ goals
16%
Charlton 1+ goals
65%
Charlton 2+ goals
29%
Charlton 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Stoke City (draw refunded)
60%
Charlton (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Stoke City at home — creates 1.18, concedes 1.23 · 58 matches

Charlton away — creates 0.89, concedes 1.55 · 21 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Stoke City attack 1.18 + Charlton defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.36

Charlton attack 0.89 + Stoke City defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Stoke City scores more
44%
level
27%
Charlton scores more
29%

Stoke City at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Stoke City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Charlton score first in only 30% of matches
  • 70% of Charlton’s matches stay under 2.5 goals

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Style Matchup

Contrasting styles
Stoke City
Balanced
Charlton
Direct / counter-attacking
50%PossessionBiggest gap44%
75%Pass accuracy71%
11.4Shots10.4
1.12xG0.99
Pass acc.ShotsxGBox shareShot acc.Defense
Stoke CityCharlton

Head-to-head

4 previous meetings

2
Stoke City
0
Draws
2
Charlton
Avg goals: 3BTTS: 50%
0–13–03–11–3

Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.

Form
City
WDLLL
Charlton
WDWLW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Stoke City host Charlton

September 5, 2026: Stoke City take on Charlton in Championship. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Stoke City host Charlton at Bet365 Stadium.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.