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Charlton vs Stoke City — Championship 2018

Charlton
Charlton
FT
3 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Stoke City
Stoke City
C. Gallagher 83'
C. Aneke 75'
L. Taylor 25'
T. Ince 37'
8/10/2019ChampionshipChampionship · Round 2The Valley

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 19+ matches

Charlton42%
×Draw27%
Stoke City31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Charlton
1.39
Stoke City
1.16

Charlton creates 20% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 45 away

creates per match

Charlton
1.12
Stoke City
0.99

allows per match

Charlton
1.32
Stoke City
1.65

finishing

Charlton-0.12scores less
Stoke City-0.26scores less

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Charlton ↓

Stoke City →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Charlton or draw
69%
Charlton or Stoke City
73%
Draw or Stoke City
58%

Winning margin

Charlton wins by 2+
20%
Stoke City wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Charlton 1+ goals
75%
Charlton 2+ goals
40%
Charlton 3+ goals
16%
Stoke City 1+ goals
69%
Stoke City 2+ goals
32%
Stoke City 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Charlton (draw refunded)
57%
Stoke City (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Charlton at home — creates 1.12, concedes 1.32 · 19 matches

Stoke City away — creates 0.99, concedes 1.65 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Charlton attack 1.12 + Stoke City defence 1.65 → ÷2 → 1.39

Stoke City attack 0.99 + Charlton defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Charlton scores more
42%
level
27%
Stoke City scores more
31%

Charlton at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Charlton will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

9
L. TaylorCharltonCharlton · F
7.9

Match Events

25'
L. Taylor↳ J. Leko
37'
T. Ince
61'
T. Campbell← S. Hogan
69'
C. Aneke← J. Leko
69'
M. Duffy← R. Woods
75'
C. Aneke↳ J. Williams
78'
T. Verlinden← L. Gregory
83'
C. Gallagher↳ L. Taylor
86'
G. Lapslie← J. Williams

Possession

45%Charlton

Shots

5Charlton

Pass accuracy

48%Charlton

Statistics

CharltonStoke
Overview
45%Possession55%
5Total Shots12
1Corners4
10Fouls11
Shots
5Total Shots12
3On Target3
1Off Target8
1Blocked1
3Inside Box8
2Outside Box4
Passing
45%Possession55%
391Total Passes461
291Accurate Passes372
74%Pass Accuracy81%
Goalkeeping
2Saves0
Discipline
10Fouls11
1Offsides3

Match Recap: Charlton vs Stoke City

Charlton beat Stoke City 3-1 in Championship on August 10, 2019.

Goals: L. Taylor (25'), T. Ince (37'), C. Aneke (75'), C. Gallagher (83').

Stoke City controlled possession (55%) and registered 12 shots to 5.

The match was played at The Valley in London.