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Stoke City vs Cardiff — Championship 2025

Stoke City
Stoke City
Preview
18:45
Cardiff
Cardiff
4/6/2027ChampionshipChampionship · Round 41Bet365 Stadium
Big match
45%
Stoke City
model favours
45%26%29%
1–1
likely score
51%
under 2.5 goals
53%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 28+ matches

Stoke City45%
×Draw26%
Cardiff29%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Stoke City
1.49
Cardiff
1.14

Stoke City creates 31% more chances

Season form · 28 home / 60 away

creates per match

Stoke City
1.43
Cardiff
1.03

allows per match

Stoke City
1.25
Cardiff
1.55

finishing

Stoke City+0.00on par
Cardiff+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Stoke City ↓

Cardiff →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Stoke City or draw
71%
Stoke City or Cardiff
74%
Draw or Cardiff
55%

Winning margin

Stoke City wins by 2+
22%
Cardiff wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Stoke City 1+ goals
77%
Stoke City 2+ goals
44%
Stoke City 3+ goals
19%
Cardiff 1+ goals
68%
Cardiff 2+ goals
32%
Cardiff 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Stoke City (draw refunded)
61%
Cardiff (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Stoke City at home — creates 1.43, concedes 1.25 · 28 matches

Cardiff away — creates 1.03, concedes 1.55 · 60 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Stoke City attack 1.43 + Cardiff defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.49

Cardiff attack 1.03 + Stoke City defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Stoke City scores more
45%
level
26%
Cardiff scores more
29%

Stoke City at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Stoke City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Form
City
LLLLL
Cardiff
WLLWW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Stoke City host Cardiff

April 6, 2027: Stoke City take on Cardiff in Championship. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Stoke City host Cardiff at Bet365 Stadium.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.