Cardiff 2–1 Stoke City: Result & Stats

Cardiff

FT

2 – 1

HT: 2 – 1

Stoke City

K. Ahearne-Grant 32'

K. Etete 5'

Bae Jun-Ho 41'

2/24/2024

Championship · Round 34Cardiff City Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 8+ matches

Cardiff40%

×Draw28%

Stoke City32%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CardiffExpected goals in this matchStoke City

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.23

1.07

Cardiff

1.23

Stoke City

1.07

Cardiff creates 15% more chances

Season form · 31 home / 8 away

1.12

creates per match

0.88

1.27

allows per match

1.34

creates per match

Cardiff

1.12

Stoke City

0.88

allows per match

Cardiff

1.27

Stoke City

1.34

+0.07on par

finishing

-0.63scores less than expected

finishing

Cardiff+0.07on par

Stoke City-0.63scores less

Total goals

Under60
Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cardiff ↓

Stoke City →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–111%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–18%

2–24%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

67%33%2.5

40%60%3.5

20%80%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Cardiff or draw

68%

Cardiff or Stoke City

72%

Draw or Stoke City

60%

Winning margin

Cardiff wins by 2+

17%

Stoke City wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Cardiff 1+ goals

71%

Cardiff 2+ goals

35%

Cardiff 3+ goals

13%

Stoke City 1+ goals

66%

Stoke City 2+ goals

29%

Stoke City 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Cardiff (draw refunded)

55%

Stoke City (draw refunded)

45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

33%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cardiff at home — creates 1.12, concedes 1.27 · 31 matches

Stoke City away — creates 0.88, concedes 1.34 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cardiff attack 1.12 + Stoke City defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.23

Stoke City attack 0.88 + Cardiff defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Cardiff scores more

40%

level

28%

Stoke City scores more

32%

Cardiff at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Cardiff will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

8

J. Ralls

Cardiff · M

7.5

Match Events

5'

K. Etete

32'

K. Ahearne-Grant↳ J. Ralls

40'

Perry Ng

41'

Bae Jun-Ho

45+2'

Jordan Thompson

46'

L. Gooch← J. Tchamadeu

46'

J. Laurent← L. Cundle

51'

Manolis Siopis

55'

R. Wintle← K. Ahearne-Grant

66'

Y. Meïté← J. Bowler

67'

J. Collins← R. Colwill

73'

Wouter Burger

75'

D. Turnbull← J. Wilson-Esbrand

75'

F. Diédhiou← K. Etete

76'

Joe Ralls

78'

André Vidigal← W. Burger

78'

T. Campbell← M. Manhoef

83'

Dimitris Goutas

88'

N. Lowe← Bae Jun-Ho

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

CardiffStoke

Overview

40%Possession60%

11Total Shots14

0.54Expected Goals (xG)1.95

2Corners6

13Fouls14

Shots

11Total Shots14

5On Target6

2Off Target7

4Blocked1

9Inside Box11

2Outside Box3

Passing

40%Possession60%

339Total Passes506

247Accurate Passes411

73%Pass Accuracy81%

Goalkeeping

5Saves3

Discipline

13Fouls14

4Yellow Cards2

3Offsides1

Match Recap: Cardiff vs Stoke City

Cardiff beat Stoke City 2-1 in Championship on February 24, 2024.

Goals: K. Etete (5'), K. Ahearne-Grant (32'), Bae Jun-Ho (41').

Stoke City controlled possession (60%) and registered 14 shots to 11.

The match was played at Cardiff City Stadium in Caerdydd.

Cardiff vs Stoke City — Championship 2025

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Match Recap: Cardiff vs Stoke City