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Stoke City vs Cardiff — Championship 2018

Stoke City
Stoke City
FT
2 – 2
HT: 2 – 1
Cardiff
Cardiff
L. Delap 18'
T. Campbell 11'
C. Robinson 58'
R. Wintle 6'
12/10/2022ChampionshipChampionship · Round 22bet365 Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 37+ matches

Stoke City42%
×Draw28%
Cardiff30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Stoke City
1.29
Cardiff
1.05

Stoke City creates 23% more chances

Season form · 61 home / 37 away

creates per match

Stoke City
1.17
Cardiff
0.86

allows per match

Stoke City
1.24
Cardiff
1.41

finishing

Stoke City+0.13scores more
Cardiff+0.17scores more

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Stoke City ↓

Cardiff →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
41%59%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Stoke City or draw
70%
Stoke City or Cardiff
72%
Draw or Cardiff
58%

Winning margin

Stoke City wins by 2+
19%
Cardiff wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Stoke City 1+ goals
72%
Stoke City 2+ goals
37%
Stoke City 3+ goals
14%
Cardiff 1+ goals
65%
Cardiff 2+ goals
28%
Cardiff 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Stoke City (draw refunded)
58%
Cardiff (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Stoke City at home — creates 1.17, concedes 1.24 · 61 matches

Cardiff away — creates 0.86, concedes 1.41 · 37 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Stoke City attack 1.17 + Cardiff defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.29

Cardiff attack 0.86 + Stoke City defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.05

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Stoke City scores more
42%
level
28%
Cardiff scores more
30%

Stoke City at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Stoke City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

6
R. WintleCardiffCardiff · M
7.7

Match Events

6'
R. Wintle↳ G. Whyte
11'
T. Campbell↳ J. Tymon
18'
L. Delap
39'
Harry Souttar
52'
Niels Nkounkou
56'
M. Harris← N. Nkounkou
56'
R. Sawyers← J. Ralls
56'
K. Etete← A. Rinomhota
58'
C. Robinson↳ K. Etete
69'
J. Brown← L. Delap
69'
N. Powell← L. Baker
87'
R. Colwill← G. Whyte
90'
Ryan Allsop

Possession

44%Stoke

Shots

11Stoke

Pass accuracy

49%Stoke

Statistics

StokeCardiff
Overview
44%Possession56%
11Total Shots8
6Corners5
10Fouls7
Shots
11Total Shots8
4On Target5
4Off Target2
3Blocked1
7Inside Box5
4Outside Box3
Passing
44%Possession56%
364Total Passes465
269Accurate Passes356
74%Pass Accuracy77%
Goalkeeping
3Saves2
Discipline
10Fouls7
1Yellow Cards2
0Offsides2

Championship: Stoke City 2–2 Cardiff

Stoke City and Cardiff drew 2-2 in Championship on December 10, 2022.

Goals: R. Wintle (6'), T. Campbell (11'), L. Delap (18'), C. Robinson (58').

Cardiff controlled possession (56%) and registered 8 shots to 11.

The match was played at bet365 Stadium in Stoke-on-Trent, Staffordshire.