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Stoke City vs Cardiff — Championship 2018

Stoke City
Stoke City
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Cardiff
Cardiff
2/22/2020ChampionshipChampionship · Round 34bet365 Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 28+ matches

Stoke City44%
×Draw28%
Cardiff28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Stoke City
1.33
Cardiff
1.00

Stoke City creates 33% more chances

Season form · 28 home / 34 away

creates per match

Stoke City
1.30
Cardiff
0.85

allows per match

Stoke City
1.15
Cardiff
1.36

finishing

Stoke City+0.16scores more
Cardiff+0.15scores more

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Stoke City ↓

Cardiff →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
41%59%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Stoke City or draw
72%
Stoke City or Cardiff
72%
Draw or Cardiff
56%

Winning margin

Stoke City wins by 2+
21%
Cardiff wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Stoke City 1+ goals
74%
Stoke City 2+ goals
38%
Stoke City 3+ goals
15%
Cardiff 1+ goals
63%
Cardiff 2+ goals
26%
Cardiff 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Stoke City (draw refunded)
61%
Cardiff (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Stoke City at home — creates 1.30, concedes 1.15 · 28 matches

Cardiff away — creates 0.85, concedes 1.36 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Stoke City attack 1.30 + Cardiff defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.33

Cardiff attack 0.85 + Stoke City defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Stoke City scores more
44%
level
28%
Cardiff scores more
28%

Stoke City at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Stoke City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Championship: Stoke City 2–0 Cardiff

Stoke City beat Cardiff 2-0 in Championship on February 22, 2020.

The match was played at bet365 Stadium in Stoke-on-Trent, Staffordshire.