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Stoke City vs Burton Albion — Friendlies Clubs 2026

Stoke City
Stoke City
FT
0 – 1
Burton Albion
Burton Albion
8/22/2020Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 3bet365 Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Stoke City20%
×Draw27%
Burton Albion53%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Stoke City
0.75
Burton Albion
1.42

Burton Albion creates 89% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 6 away

creates per match

Stoke City
0.83
Burton Albion
2.00

allows per match

Stoke City
0.83
Burton Albion
0.67

finishing

Stoke City+0.00on par
Burton Albion+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Under
  • Under63
  • Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

60%No
  • No60
  • Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Stoke City ↓

Burton Albion →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–116%
0–212%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–03%
2–15%
2–23%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–11%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (16%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
64%36%2.5
37%63%3.5
17%83%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Stoke City or draw
47%
Stoke City or Burton Albion
73%
Draw or Burton Albion
80%

Winning margin

Stoke City wins by 2+
6%
Burton Albion wins by 2+
26%

Team goals

Stoke City 1+ goals
53%
Stoke City 2+ goals
17%
Stoke City 3+ goals
4%
Burton Albion 1+ goals
76%
Burton Albion 2+ goals
41%
Burton Albion 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Stoke City (draw refunded)
27%
Burton Albion (draw refunded)
73%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
28%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Stoke City at home — creates 0.83, concedes 0.83 · 6 matches

Burton Albion away — creates 2.00, concedes 0.67 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Stoke City attack 0.83 + Burton Albion defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 0.75

Burton Albion attack 2.00 + Stoke City defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 1.42

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Stoke City scores more
20%
level
27%
Burton Albion scores more
53%

Burton Albion at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Burton Albion will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Friendlies Clubs: Stoke City 0–1 Burton Albion

Burton Albion beat Stoke City 1-0 in Friendlies Clubs on August 22, 2020.

The match was played at bet365 Stadium in Stoke-on-Trent, Staffordshire.