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Stoke City vs Bolton — Championship 2018

Stoke City
Stoke City
Preview
15:00
Bolton
Bolton
2/27/2027ChampionshipChampionship · Round 34Bet365 Stadium
Big match
50%
Stoke City
model favours
50%26%23%

80% of Bolton’s matches go over 2.5 goals

brightest fact of this match

1–0
likely score
57%
under 2.5 goals
47%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 53+ matches

Stoke City50%
×Draw26%
Bolton23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Stoke City
1.49
Bolton
0.92

Stoke City creates 62% more chances

Season form · 175 home / 53 away

creates per match

Stoke City
1.30
Bolton
0.75

allows per match

Stoke City
1.09
Bolton
1.68

finishing

Stoke City+0.00on par
Bolton+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Stoke City ↓

Bolton →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Stoke City or draw
77%
Stoke City or Bolton
74%
Draw or Bolton
50%

Winning margin

Stoke City wins by 2+
26%
Bolton wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Stoke City 1+ goals
77%
Stoke City 2+ goals
44%
Stoke City 3+ goals
19%
Bolton 1+ goals
60%
Bolton 2+ goals
23%
Bolton 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Stoke City (draw refunded)
68%
Bolton (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Stoke City at home — creates 1.30, concedes 1.09 · 175 matches

Bolton away — creates 0.75, concedes 1.68 · 53 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Stoke City attack 1.30 + Bolton defence 1.68 → ÷2 → 1.49

Bolton attack 0.75 + Stoke City defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 0.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Stoke City scores more
50%
level
26%
Bolton scores more
23%

Stoke City at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Stoke City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Bolton have scored in 9 games running
  • Both teams score in 70% of Bolton’s matches
  • 40% of Bolton’s goals come after the 75th minute

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Style Matchup

Contrasting styles
Stoke City
Balanced
Bolton
Direct / counter-attacking
50%PossessionBiggest gap41%
75%Pass accuracy66%
11.4Shots9.8
1.12xG—
Pass acc.ShotsxGBox shareShot acc.Defense
Stoke CityBolton

Head-to-head

6 previous meetings

3
Stoke City
1
Draws
2
Bolton
Avg goals: 2.2BTTS: 17%
1–00–02–00–52–0

Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.

Form
City
WDLLL
Bolton
WLWWW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Stoke City face Bolton (Championship)

Championship returns with Stoke City hosting Bolton. Match starts February 27, 2027. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Stoke City host Bolton at Bet365 Stadium.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.