Bolton 0–1 Stoke City: Result & Stats

Bolton

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Stoke City

M. Manhoef 34'

7/30/2024

Friendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 3Toughsheet Community Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Bolton39%

×Draw27%

Stoke City34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BoltonExpected goals in this matchStoke City

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.30

1.21

Bolton

1.30

Stoke City

1.21

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 7 home / 9 away

1.71

creates per match

1.56

0.86

allows per match

0.89

creates per match

Bolton

1.71

Stoke City

1.56

allows per match

Bolton

0.86

Stoke City

0.89

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Bolton+0.00on par

Stoke City+0.00on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bolton ↓

Stoke City →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–110%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

46%54%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Bolton or draw

66%

Bolton or Stoke City

73%

Draw or Stoke City

61%

Winning margin

Bolton wins by 2+

17%

Stoke City wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Bolton 1+ goals

73%

Bolton 2+ goals

37%

Bolton 3+ goals

14%

Stoke City 1+ goals

70%

Stoke City 2+ goals

34%

Stoke City 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Bolton (draw refunded)

53%

Stoke City (draw refunded)

47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bolton at home — creates 1.71, concedes 0.86 · 7 matches

Stoke City away — creates 1.56, concedes 0.89 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bolton attack 1.71 + Stoke City defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 1.30

Stoke City attack 1.56 + Bolton defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Bolton scores more

39%

level

27%

Stoke City scores more

34%

Bolton at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Bolton will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

34'

M. Manhoef

Bolton3-4-3

Stoke4-2-3-1

22

Tezgel

24

Tchamadeu

15

Thompson

42

⚽

28

6

3

23

16

17

1

1

18

5

6

3

16

8

12

29

11

17

Manager: I. Evatt

Bolton substitutes

13Coleman17Conway41Matheson4Thomason32Khumbeni58Sharples70Halford14Adeboyejo10Charles

Manager: A. Neil

Stoke City substitutes

5Dixon2Gooch8Baker7Vidigal12Johnson27Léris30Sidibe35Lowe9Andersson

Friendlies Clubs: Bolton 0–1 Stoke City

Stoke City beat Bolton 1-0 in Friendlies Clubs on July 30, 2024.

Goals: M. Manhoef (34').

The match was played at Toughsheet Community Stadium in Bolton.

Bolton vs Stoke City — Friendlies Clubs 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Friendlies Clubs: Bolton 0–1 Stoke City