Stoke City 3–2 Blackburn: Result & Stats

Stoke City

FT

3 – 2

HT: 2 – 0

Blackburn

T. Campbell 75'

K. Hoever 43', 24'

S. Gallagher 90'

B. Brereton 86'

3/10/2023

Championship · Round 36bet365 Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 55+ matches

Stoke City40%

×Draw28%

Blackburn32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Stoke CityExpected goals in this matchBlackburn

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.27

1.11

Stoke City

1.27

Blackburn

1.11

Stoke City creates 14% more chances

Season form · 55 home / 59 away

1.17

creates per match

1.01

1.22

allows per match

1.38

creates per match

Stoke City

1.17

Blackburn

1.01

allows per match

Stoke City

1.22

Blackburn

1.38

+0.18scores more than expected

finishing

+0.06on par

finishing

Stoke City+0.18scores more

Blackburn+0.06on par

Total goals

Under58
Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Stoke City ↓

Blackburn →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–110%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

42%58%3.5

22%78%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Stoke City or draw

68%

Stoke City or Blackburn

72%

Draw or Blackburn

60%

Winning margin

Stoke City wins by 2+

18%

Blackburn wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Stoke City 1+ goals

72%

Stoke City 2+ goals

36%

Stoke City 3+ goals

14%

Blackburn 1+ goals

67%

Blackburn 2+ goals

30%

Blackburn 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Stoke City (draw refunded)

55%

Blackburn (draw refunded)

45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Stoke City at home — creates 1.17, concedes 1.22 · 55 matches

Blackburn away — creates 1.01, concedes 1.38 · 59 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Stoke City attack 1.17 + Blackburn defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.27

Blackburn attack 1.01 + Stoke City defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Stoke City scores more

40%

level

28%

Blackburn scores more

32%

Stoke City at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Stoke City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

17

K. Hoever

Stoke City · D

8.3

Match Events

24'

K. Hoever↳ D. Gayle

43'

K. Hoever↳ J. Laurent

59'

B. Brereton← T. Dolan

59'

R. Hedges← S. Thomas

59'

T. Morton← J. Buckley

69'

74'

75'

77'

79'

82'

S. Clucas← T. Campbell

82'

J. Thompson← B. Pearson

83'

Jacob Brown

84'

J. Garrett← S. Szmodics

84'

C. Brittain← J. Rankin-Costello

86'

B. Brereton↳ C. Brittain

88'

L. Baker← J. Laurent

90'

S. Gallagher↳ H. Pickering

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

StokeBlackburn

Overview

50%Possession50%

14Total Shots9

1Corners5

9Fouls10

Shots

14Total Shots9

5On Target2

5Off Target3

4Blocked4

8Inside Box5

6Outside Box4

Passing

50%Possession50%

387Total Passes400

275Accurate Passes282

71%Pass Accuracy71%

Goalkeeping

0Saves2

Discipline

9Fouls10

2Yellow Cards2

2Offsides1