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Blackburn vs Stoke City — Championship 2018

Blackburn
Blackburn
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Stoke City
Stoke City
10/4/2025ChampionshipChampionship · Round 9Ewood Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 20+ matches

Blackburn45%
×Draw28%
Stoke City27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Blackburn
1.35
Stoke City
0.97

Blackburn creates 39% more chances

Season form · 20 home / 25 away

creates per match

Blackburn
1.22
Stoke City
1.02

allows per match

Blackburn
0.92
Stoke City
1.48

finishing

Blackburn-0.22scores less
Stoke City-0.38scores less

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Blackburn ↓

Stoke City →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–110%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
41%59%3.5
20%80%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Blackburn or draw
73%
Blackburn or Stoke City
72%
Draw or Stoke City
55%

Winning margin

Blackburn wins by 2+
21%
Stoke City wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Blackburn 1+ goals
74%
Blackburn 2+ goals
39%
Blackburn 3+ goals
15%
Stoke City 1+ goals
62%
Stoke City 2+ goals
25%
Stoke City 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Blackburn (draw refunded)
63%
Stoke City (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Blackburn at home — creates 1.22, concedes 0.92 · 20 matches

Stoke City away — creates 1.02, concedes 1.48 · 25 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Blackburn attack 1.22 + Stoke City defence 1.48 → ÷2 → 1.35

Stoke City attack 1.02 + Blackburn defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 0.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Blackburn scores more
45%
level
28%
Stoke City scores more
27%

Blackburn at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Blackburn will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Championship: Blackburn 1–1 Stoke City

Blackburn and Stoke City drew 1-1 in Championship on October 4, 2025.

The match was played at Ewood Park in Blackburn.