Stoke City 0–1 Blackburn: Result & Stats

Stoke City

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Blackburn

R. Khadra 52'

11/27/2021

Championship · Round 20bet365 Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 57+ matches

Stoke City40%

×Draw28%

Blackburn32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Stoke CityExpected goals in this matchBlackburn

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.28

1.12

Stoke City

1.28

Blackburn

1.12

Stoke City creates 14% more chances

Season form · 57 home / 59 away

1.19

creates per match

1.01

1.23

allows per match

1.38

creates per match

Stoke City

1.19

Blackburn

1.01

allows per match

Stoke City

1.23

Blackburn

1.38

+0.13scores more than expected

finishing

+0.06on par

finishing

Stoke City+0.13scores more

Blackburn+0.06on par

Total goals

Under57
Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Stoke City ↓

Blackburn →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–110%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

43%57%3.5

22%78%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Stoke City or draw

68%

Stoke City or Blackburn

72%

Draw or Blackburn

60%

Winning margin

Stoke City wins by 2+

18%

Blackburn wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Stoke City 1+ goals

72%

Stoke City 2+ goals

37%

Stoke City 3+ goals

14%

Blackburn 1+ goals

67%

Blackburn 2+ goals

31%

Blackburn 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Stoke City (draw refunded)

55%

Blackburn (draw refunded)

45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Stoke City at home — creates 1.19, concedes 1.23 · 57 matches

Blackburn away — creates 1.01, concedes 1.38 · 59 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Stoke City attack 1.19 + Blackburn defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.28

Blackburn attack 1.01 + Stoke City defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.12

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Stoke City scores more

40%

level

28%

Blackburn scores more

32%

Stoke City at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Stoke City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

26

D. Lenihan

Blackburn · D

7.7

Match Events

52'

R. Khadra↳ J. Buckley

56'

A. Pears← T. Kaminski

60'

Jacob Brown

66'

T. Ince← M. Fox

66'

S. Fletcher← J. Brown

68'

T. Dolan← R. Khadra

73'

J. Davenport← J. Rothwell

74'

Adam Davies

74'

Tyrhys Dolan

75'

James Chester

78'

A. Doughty← J. Chester

81'

89'

90'

90+1'

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

StokeBlackburn

Overview

58%Possession42%

7Total Shots7

4Corners3

13Fouls6

Shots

7Total Shots7

4On Target2

3Off Target5

0Blocked0

2Inside Box3

5Outside Box4

Passing

58%Possession42%

487Total Passes339

360Accurate Passes239

74%Pass Accuracy71%

Goalkeeping

1Saves4

Discipline

13Fouls6

4Yellow Cards4

1Offsides6