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Stoke City vs Birmingham — Championship 2018

Stoke City
Stoke City
Preview
15:00
Birmingham
Birmingham
11/21/2026ChampionshipChampionship · Round 16Bet365 Stadium
Big match
40%
Stoke City
model favours
40%28%32%

Birmingham have won 5 in a row

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
59%
under 2.5 goals
47%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 36+ matches

Stoke City40%
×Draw28%
Birmingham32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Stoke City
1.25
Birmingham
1.09

Stoke City creates 15% more chances

Season form · 58 home / 36 away

creates per match

Stoke City
1.18
Birmingham
0.95

allows per match

Stoke City
1.23
Birmingham
1.32

finishing

Stoke City+0.13scores more
Birmingham-0.20scores less

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Stoke City ↓

Birmingham →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–111%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
41%59%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Stoke City or draw
68%
Stoke City or Birmingham
72%
Draw or Birmingham
60%

Winning margin

Stoke City wins by 2+
18%
Birmingham wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Stoke City 1+ goals
71%
Stoke City 2+ goals
36%
Stoke City 3+ goals
13%
Birmingham 1+ goals
66%
Birmingham 2+ goals
30%
Birmingham 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Stoke City (draw refunded)
55%
Birmingham (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Stoke City at home — creates 1.18, concedes 1.23 · 58 matches

Birmingham away — creates 0.95, concedes 1.32 · 36 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Stoke City attack 1.18 + Birmingham defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.25

Birmingham attack 0.95 + Stoke City defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Stoke City scores more
40%
level
28%
Birmingham scores more
32%

Stoke City at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Stoke City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Birmingham are unbeaten in 7 straight
  • Birmingham have scored in 7 games running

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Style Matchup

Similar styles
Stoke City
Balanced
Birmingham
Balanced
50%Possession46%
75%Pass accuracy69%
11.4Shots11.9
1.12xGBiggest gap1.27
Pass acc.ShotsxGBox shareShot acc.Defense
Stoke CityBirmingham

Head-to-head

10 previous meetings

2
Stoke City
5
Draws
3
Birmingham
Avg goals: 2.1BTTS: 60%
1–11–01–23–10–0

Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.

Form
City
WDLLL
Birmingham
WWWDW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Stoke City host Birmingham

November 21, 2026: Stoke City take on Birmingham in Championship. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Stoke City host Birmingham at Bet365 Stadium.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.