Birmingham 0–0 Stoke City: Result & Stats

Birmingham

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Stoke City

4/10/2023

Championship · Round 41St Andrew's Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 11+ matches

Birmingham52%

×Draw25%

Stoke City24%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BirminghamExpected goals in this matchStoke City

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.63

1.02

Birmingham

1.63

Stoke City

1.02

Birmingham creates 60% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 25 away

1.78

creates per match

1.02

1.01

allows per match

1.48

creates per match

Birmingham

1.78

Stoke City

1.02

allows per match

Birmingham

1.01

Stoke City

1.48

-0.05on par

finishing

-0.38scores less than expected

finishing

Birmingham-0.05on par

Stoke City-0.38scores less

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Birmingham ↓

Stoke City →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–17%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Birmingham or draw

76%

Birmingham or Stoke City

75%

Draw or Stoke City

48%

Winning margin

Birmingham wins by 2+

27%

Stoke City wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Birmingham 1+ goals

80%

Birmingham 2+ goals

48%

Birmingham 3+ goals

22%

Stoke City 1+ goals

64%

Stoke City 2+ goals

27%

Stoke City 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Birmingham (draw refunded)

68%

Stoke City (draw refunded)

32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Birmingham at home — creates 1.78, concedes 1.01 · 11 matches

Stoke City away — creates 1.02, concedes 1.48 · 25 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Birmingham attack 1.78 + Stoke City defence 1.48 → ÷2 → 1.63

Stoke City attack 1.02 + Birmingham defence 1.01 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Birmingham scores more

52%

level

25%

Stoke City scores more

24%

Birmingham at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Birmingham will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff