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Stoke City vs Arsenal — Premier League 2026

Stoke City
Stoke City
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Arsenal
Arsenal
1/17/2016Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 22bet365 Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 72+ matches

Stoke City33%
×Draw25%
Arsenal42%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Stoke City
1.27
Arsenal
1.47

Arsenal creates 16% more chances

Season form · 72 home / 210 away

creates per match

Stoke City
1.31
Arsenal
1.63

allows per match

Stoke City
1.31
Arsenal
1.24

finishing

Stoke City+0.00on par
Arsenal+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Stoke City ↓

Arsenal →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–110%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Stoke City or draw
58%
Stoke City or Arsenal
75%
Draw or Arsenal
67%

Winning margin

Stoke City wins by 2+
14%
Arsenal wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

Stoke City 1+ goals
72%
Stoke City 2+ goals
36%
Stoke City 3+ goals
14%
Arsenal 1+ goals
77%
Arsenal 2+ goals
43%
Arsenal 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Stoke City (draw refunded)
44%
Arsenal (draw refunded)
56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Stoke City at home — creates 1.31, concedes 1.31 · 72 matches

Arsenal away — creates 1.63, concedes 1.24 · 210 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Stoke City attack 1.31 + Arsenal defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.27

Arsenal attack 1.63 + Stoke City defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.47

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Stoke City scores more
33%
level
25%
Arsenal scores more
42%

Arsenal at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Arsenal will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

33
P. ČechArsenalArsenal · G
7.9

Match Events

64'
M. Diouf← Bojan
72'
A. Iwobi← T. Walcott
87'
C. Adam← M. Arnautović
88'
M. van Ginkel← I. Afellay
90+1'
C. Chambers← A. Oxlade-Chamberlain

Possession

45%Stoke

Shots

14Stoke

Pass accuracy

49%Stoke

Statistics

StokeArsenal
Overview
45%Possession55%
14Total Shots8
6Corners6
0Fouls0
Shots
14Total Shots8
6On Target3
3Off Target1
5Blocked4
7Inside Box4
7Outside Box4
Passing
45%Possession55%
406Total Passes495
309Accurate Passes386
76%Pass Accuracy78%
Goalkeeping
3Saves5
Discipline
0Fouls0
9Offsides0

Premier League: Stoke City 0–0 Arsenal

Stoke City and Arsenal drew 0-0 in Premier League on January 17, 2016.

Arsenal controlled possession (55%) and registered 8 shots to 14.

The match was played at bet365 Stadium in Stoke.