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Stöde vs Umea FF — Division 2 - Norrland 2019

Stöde
Stöde
FT
2 – 2
Umea FF
Umea FF
9/25/2021Division 2 - NorrlandDivision 2 - Norrland · Norrland - 26Stöde IP

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Stöde26%
×Draw22%
Umea FF52%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Stöde
1.32
Umea FF
1.96

Umea FF creates 48% more chances

Season form · 34 home / 46 away

creates per match

Stöde
1.82
Umea FF
2.09

allows per match

Stöde
1.82
Umea FF
0.83

finishing

Stöde+0.00on par
Umea FF+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Stöde ↓

Umea FF →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–17%
0–27%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–05%
1–110%
1–210%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
63%37%3.5
41%59%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Stöde or draw
48%
Stöde or Umea FF
78%
Draw or Umea FF
74%

Winning margin

Stöde wins by 2+
11%
Umea FF wins by 2+
30%

Team goals

Stöde 1+ goals
73%
Stöde 2+ goals
38%
Stöde 3+ goals
15%
Umea FF 1+ goals
86%
Umea FF 2+ goals
58%
Umea FF 3+ goals
31%

Draw no bet

Stöde (draw refunded)
33%
Umea FF (draw refunded)
67%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Stöde at home — creates 1.82, concedes 1.82 · 34 matches

Umea FF away — creates 2.09, concedes 0.83 · 46 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Stöde attack 1.82 + Umea FF defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 1.32

Umea FF attack 2.09 + Stöde defence 1.82 → ÷2 → 1.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Stöde scores more
26%
level
22%
Umea FF scores more
52%

Umea FF at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Umea FF will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Stöde 2 – 2 Umea FF

Stöde and Umea FF drew 2-2 in Division 2 - Norrland on September 25, 2021.

The match was played at Stöde IP in Stöde.