Annagh United 0–0 Portstewart: Result & Stats

Annagh United

FT

0 – 0

Portstewart

2/8/2020

League #561 · Round 11Tandragee Road

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Annagh United51%

×Draw23%

Portstewart26%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Annagh UnitedExpected goals in this matchPortstewart

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.85

1.27

Annagh United

1.85

Portstewart

1.27

Annagh United creates 46% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 26 away

2.21

creates per match

1.12

1.43

allows per match

1.50

creates per match

Annagh United

2.21

Portstewart

1.12

allows per match

Annagh United

1.43

Portstewart

1.50

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Annagh United+0.00on par

Portstewart+0.00on par

Total goals

Over60
Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes61
No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Annagh United ↓

Portstewart →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–16%

0–24%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–08%

1–110%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

60%40%3.5

38%62%4.5

20%80%

Double chance

Annagh United or draw

74%

Annagh United or Portstewart

77%

Draw or Portstewart

49%

Winning margin

Annagh United wins by 2+

28%

Portstewart wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Annagh United 1+ goals

84%

Annagh United 2+ goals

55%

Annagh United 3+ goals

28%

Portstewart 1+ goals

72%

Portstewart 2+ goals

36%

Portstewart 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Annagh United (draw refunded)

66%

Portstewart (draw refunded)

34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

50%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Annagh United at home — creates 2.21, concedes 1.43 · 14 matches

Portstewart away — creates 1.12, concedes 1.50 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Annagh United attack 2.21 + Portstewart defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.85

Portstewart attack 1.12 + Annagh United defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Annagh United scores more

51%

level

23%

Portstewart scores more

26%

Annagh United at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Annagh United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff