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Stocksund vs Ostersunds FK — Svenska Cupen 2019

Stocksund
Stocksund
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Ostersunds FK
Ostersunds FK
8/14/2019Svenska CupenSvenska Cupen · 2nd RoundDanderyd Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Stocksund10%
×Draw19%
Ostersunds FK71%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Stocksund
0.60
Ostersunds FK
2.01

Ostersunds FK creates 235% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 16 away

creates per match

Stocksund
0.14
Ostersunds FK
1.31

allows per match

Stocksund
2.71
Ostersunds FK
1.06

finishing

Stocksund+0.00on par
Ostersunds FK+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

61%No
  • No61
  • Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Stocksund ↓

Ostersunds FK →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–115%
0–215%
0–310%
0–45%
1
1–04%
1–19%
1–29%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–01%
2–13%
2–23%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–00%
3–11%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (15%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Stocksund or draw
29%
Stocksund or Ostersunds FK
81%
Draw or Ostersunds FK
90%

Winning margin

Stocksund wins by 2+
2%
Ostersunds FK wins by 2+
45%

Team goals

Stocksund 1+ goals
45%
Stocksund 2+ goals
12%
Stocksund 3+ goals
2%
Ostersunds FK 1+ goals
87%
Ostersunds FK 2+ goals
59%
Ostersunds FK 3+ goals
32%

Draw no bet

Stocksund (draw refunded)
12%
Ostersunds FK (draw refunded)
88%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Stocksund at home — creates 0.14, concedes 2.71 · 7 matches

Ostersunds FK away — creates 1.31, concedes 1.06 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Stocksund attack 0.14 + Ostersunds FK defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 0.60

Ostersunds FK attack 1.31 + Stocksund defence 2.71 → ÷2 → 2.01

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 71%?"

Stocksund scores more
10%
level
19%
Ostersunds FK scores more
71%

Ostersunds FK at 71% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 71% does not mean "Ostersunds FK will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Svenska Cupen: Stocksund 0–1 Ostersunds FK

Ostersunds FK beat Stocksund 1-0 in Svenska Cupen on August 14, 2019.

The match was played at Danderyd Arena in Danderyd.