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Stocksund vs Haninge — Ettan - Norra 2019

Stocksund
Stocksund
FT
3 – 2
HT: 1 – 2
Haninge
Haninge
5/17/2025Ettan - NorraEttan - Norra · Norra - 8Danderyd IP

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 52+ matches

Stocksund45%
×Draw22%
Haninge33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Stocksund
1.99
Haninge
1.68

Stocksund creates 18% more chances

Season form · 52 home / 60 away

creates per match

Stocksund
1.85
Haninge
1.37

allows per match

Stocksund
1.98
Haninge
2.12

finishing

Stocksund+0.00on par
Haninge+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Over
  • Over71
  • Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

70%Yes
  • Yes70
  • No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Stocksund ↓

Haninge →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–27%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–16%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
88%12%2.5
71%29%3.5
50%50%4.5
30%70%

Double chance

Stocksund or draw
67%
Stocksund or Haninge
78%
Draw or Haninge
55%

Winning margin

Stocksund wins by 2+
25%
Haninge wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Stocksund 1+ goals
86%
Stocksund 2+ goals
59%
Stocksund 3+ goals
32%
Haninge 1+ goals
81%
Haninge 2+ goals
50%
Haninge 3+ goals
24%

Draw no bet

Stocksund (draw refunded)
58%
Haninge (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
62%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Stocksund at home — creates 1.85, concedes 1.98 · 52 matches

Haninge away — creates 1.37, concedes 2.12 · 60 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Stocksund attack 1.85 + Haninge defence 2.12 → ÷2 → 1.99

Haninge attack 1.37 + Stocksund defence 1.98 → ÷2 → 1.68

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Stocksund scores more
45%
level
22%
Haninge scores more
33%

Stocksund at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Stocksund will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Ettan - Norra: Stocksund 3–2 Haninge

Stocksund beat Haninge 3-2 in Ettan - Norra on May 17, 2025.

The match was played at Danderyd IP in Stocksund.